vs
⚽ Serie A
Parma vs Monza Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Parma vs Monza in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Result: Parma 1-1 Monza
Parma vs Monza finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Parma face Monza in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Parma won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Parma win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Parma vs Monza with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 11.4% | 12.6% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Parma vs Monza is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Parma with a +0.75 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Parma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (50%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Parma to win at odds 2.58 (+34.0% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Parma and Monza. Wins shown from Parma’s perspective: Parma 1 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Parma | 1 – 1 | Monza | D |
| 2025-03-15 | Monza | 1 – 1 | Parma | D |
| 2024-12-28 | Parma | 2 – 1 | Monza | W |
📈 Recent form
Parma come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Catania. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Cremonese.
- DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
- LParma 0-2 CremoneseCoppa Italia
- LJuventus 2-0 ParmaSerie A
- LParma 0-1 CagliariSerie A
- WParma 2-0 CataniaCoppa Italia
Monza come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Avellino. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Udinese.
- DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
- WTorino 0-1 MonzaCoppa Italia
- LMonza 2-3 UdineseSerie A
- LInter 4-1 MonzaSerie A
- WMonza 3-0 AvellinoCoppa Italia
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. BernabeNot in squad
- O. DialloInjury
- H. Nicolussi CavigliaGroin Injury
- P. CiurriaNot in squad
- M. PessinaKnee Injury
- I. ToureContusion
- G. VarelaThigh Injury
- J. ZiolkowskiFoot Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Parma at 51% to win and Monza at 22%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Parma win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Win | 51% | @ 2.40 | +21.9% |
| Draw | 27% | @ 3.05 | -18.7% |
| Monza Win | 22% | @ 3.05 | -31.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Parma or Draw at 1.36 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma or Draw | 76% | @ 1.36 | +3.9% |
| Monza or Draw | 48% | @ 1.54 | -25.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 24% | @ 4.75 | +16.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | @ 2.40 | +10.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | @ 1.45 | +3.6% |
| Under 3.5 | 76% | @ 1.17 | -11.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | @ 1.56 | -15.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 28% | @ 2.70 | -23.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 50% | @ 2.00 | +0.4% |
| BTTS No | 50% | @ 1.75 | -12.9% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Parma or Monza is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma -1 | 40% | @ 4.52 | +79.7% |
| Parma -1.75 | 24% | @ 7.00 | +66.1% |
| Parma -1.25 | 34% | @ 4.89 | +65.1% |
| Parma -1.5 | 28% | @ 5.75 | +59.3% |
| Parma -0.75 | 46% | @ 3.19 | +46.1% |
| Parma -0.5 | 52% | @ 2.58 | +34.0% |
| Parma -0.25 | 58% | @ 2.19 | +27.2% |
| Parma 0 | 64% | @ 1.80 | +15.7% |
| Parma +0.25 | 70% | @ 1.53 | +7.5% |
| Parma +0.5 | 76% | @ 1.41 | +7.3% |
| Parma +1.5 | 91% | @ 1.12 | +2.4% |
| Parma +0.75 | 80% | @ 1.27 | +1.8% |
| Parma +1.25 | 88% | 1.13 | -1.0% |
| Parma +1 | 84% | 1.15 | -3.9% |
| Monza +1.75 | 76% | 1.10 | -16.1% |
| Monza +1.5 | 72% | 1.14 | -17.6% |
| Monza +1.25 | 66% | 1.19 | -21.1% |
| Monza 0 | 36% | 2.08 | -25.3% |
| Monza -0.25 | 30% | 2.51 | -25.3% |
| Monza +0.75 | 54% | 1.36 | -26.3% |
| Monza +1 | 60% | 1.21 | -27.1% |
| Monza -1.25 | 12% | 5.90 | -27.1% |
| Monza +0.5 | 48% | 1.51 | -27.2% |
| Monza +0.25 | 42% | 1.70 | -28.7% |
| Monza -0.5 | 24% | 2.98 | -29.8% |
| Monza -1.5 | 9% | 6.40 | -45.0% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Parma vs Monza?
Our main pick is Parma with a +0.75 start at odds 1.27, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Parma to win at 2.58 (+34.0% value).
Who is the favourite for Parma vs Monza?
Our model makes a Parma win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Parma vs Monza.
What is the predicted score for Parma vs Monza?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.40 for Parma and 1.11 for Monza. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Parma and Monza play?
Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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