Sun 6 Sep0-5Finished

⚽ Bundesliga

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 finished 0-5. FSV Mainz 05 won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Hamburger SV face FSV Mainz 05 in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Hamburger SV have 2 wins from their last 5, while FSV Mainz 05 have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Hamburger SV won 1, FSV Mainz 05 won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Hamburger SV +1 @ 1.26

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.39 – 1.39 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.2%	8.6%	6.0%	2.8%	1.0%
1	8.6%	12.0%	8.3%	3.9%	1.3%
2	6.0%	8.3%	5.8%	2.7%	0.9%
3	2.8%	3.9%	2.7%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Hamburger SV winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Hamburger SV with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Hamburger SV 35%Draw 30%FSV Mainz 05 35%

35%30%35%

35%

FSV Mainz 05 Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05. Wins shown from Hamburger SV’s perspective: Hamburger SV 1 · 1 drawn · FSV Mainz 05 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-06	Hamburger SV	0 – 5	FSV Mainz 05	L
2026-02-20	FSV Mainz 05	1 – 1	Hamburger SV	D
2025-10-05	Hamburger SV	4 – 0	FSV Mainz 05	W

📈 Recent form

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Verl. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at RB Leipzig.

WHamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
LRB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
LHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
LBorussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
WVerl 0-3 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 9-0 at Krieschow. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.

WBorussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
LFSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
WHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
DFSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
WKrieschow 0-9 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Hamburger SV

M. MuheimMuscle Injury
W. OmariPersonal Reasons
A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury

FSV Mainz 05

D. KohrFoot Injury
E. MartelKnee Injury
P. NebelMuscle Injury
SilasBroken shinbone

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Hamburger SV at 35% to win and FSV Mainz 05 at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FSV Mainz 05 Win	35%	39%	@ 2.40
Hamburger SV Win	35%	35%	@ 2.70
Draw	30%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FSV Mainz 05 or Draw at 1.44 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw	63%	65%	@ 1.44
Hamburger SV or Draw	63%	61%	@ 1.55

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	79%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	70%	65%	@ 1.45
Over 2.5	53%	57%	@ 1.66
Under 2.5	47%	43%	@ 2.17
Over 3.5	30%	35%	@ 2.70
Under 1.5	24%	21%	@ 4.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	44%	39%	@ 2.35

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Hamburger SV or FSV Mainz 05 is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FSV Mainz 05 +1.75	86%	86%	1.10
Hamburger SV +1.75	86%	84%	1.12
FSV Mainz 05 +1.5	84%	83%	1.15
Hamburger SV +1.5	84%	79%	1.19
FSV Mainz 05 +1.25	79%	81%	1.17
Hamburger SV +1.25	78%	77%	1.24
FSV Mainz 05 +1	74%	–	1.20
Hamburger SV +1	73%	75%	1.26
FSV Mainz 05 +0.75	68%	72%	1.32
Hamburger SV +0.75	68%	67%	1.42
FSV Mainz 05 +0.5	63%	65%	1.46
Hamburger SV +0.5	63%	60%	1.58
FSV Mainz 05 +0.25	57%	60%	1.59
Hamburger SV +0.25	56%	55%	1.75
FSV Mainz 05 0	50%	54%	1.80
Hamburger SV 0	50%	46%	@ 2.08
FSV Mainz 05 -0.25	44%	45%	2.10
Hamburger SV -0.25	43%	40%	@ 2.42
FSV Mainz 05 -0.5	37%	40%	2.42
Hamburger SV -0.5	37%	35%	@ 2.77
FSV Mainz 05 -0.75	32%	33%	2.89
Hamburger SV -0.75	32%	28%	@ 3.40
FSV Mainz 05 -1	27%	25%	@ 3.85
FSV Mainz 05 -1.25	22%	23%	4.20
Hamburger SV -1.25	21%	19%	@ 5.00
FSV Mainz 05 -1.5	16%	21%	4.50
Hamburger SV -1.5	16%	17%	5.50
FSV Mainz 05 -1.75	14%	16%	6.00
Hamburger SV -1.75	14%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Hamburger SV 34%Draw 27%FSV Mainz 05 39%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

Our model's main pick is Hamburger SV with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

Our model makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05.

What is the predicted score for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.39 for Hamburger SV and 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.