⚽ Serie A

Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bologna vs Sassuolo in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Bologna face Sassuolo in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. Recent form: Bologna have 2 wins from their last 5, while Sassuolo have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Bologna won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bologna vs Sassuolo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.63 – 1.12 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	7.2%	4.0%	1.5%	0.4%
1	10.4%	11.7%	6.5%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.5%	9.5%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.6%	5.2%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.1%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Bologna winDrawSassuolo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bologna vs Sassuolo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Bologna win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.98 (+2.7% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.98, 52% model probability, +2.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Bologna 49%Draw 28%Sassuolo 24%

49%28%24%

49%

Bologna Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

+2.7%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Bologna and Sassuolo. Wins shown from Bologna’s perspective: Bologna 2 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-15	Sassuolo	0 – 1	Bologna	W
2025-12-28	Bologna	1 – 1	Sassuolo	D
2024-02-03	Bologna	4 – 2	Sassuolo	W
2023-10-28	Sassuolo	1 – 1	Bologna	D

📈 Recent form

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Cambuur. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Atalanta.

LAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
LBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A
LBrighton 1-0 BolognaFriendlies Clubs
DBologna 1-1 PisaFriendlies Clubs
WBologna 3-1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs

Sassuolo

Sassuolo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Cesena. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Atalanta.

DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
WSassuolo 2-1 TorinoSerie A
LAtalanta 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
WSassuolo 3-0 CesenaCoppa Italia
LFC Augsburg 3-2 SassuoloFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Bologna

O. El AzzouziThigh Injury
R. OrsoliniInjury

Sassuolo

D. BolocaMuscle Injury
F. CandeKnee Injury
I. KoneBroken Leg
Y. PazKnee Injury
E. PieragnoloKnee Injury
S. WalukiewiczMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bologna at 49% to win and Sassuolo at 24%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sassuolo Win	24%	@ 4.00	-5.4%
Draw	28%	@ 3.40	-6.7%
Bologna Win	49%	@ 1.89	-7.6%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sassuolo or Draw at 1.87 (50% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sassuolo or Draw	50%	@ 1.87	-6.7%
Bologna or Draw	75%	@ 1.23	-7.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	30%	@ 3.50	+3.9%
Over 2.5	52%	@ 1.98	+2.7%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.30	-1.2%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.29	-9.3%
Under 2.5	48%	@ 1.81	-12.9%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 3.40	-18.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	54%	@ 1.81	-3.2%
BTTS No	46%	@ 1.93	-10.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	56%
Dixon-Coles	Home	43%
GradientBoosting	Home	49%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.60 for the home side, 1.05 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.98 (+2.7% value).

Who is the favourite for Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Bologna vs Sassuolo.

What is the predicted score for Bologna vs Sassuolo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Bologna and 1.12 for Sassuolo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bologna and Sassuolo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.