vs
⚽ Serie A
Cagliari vs Lecce Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cagliari vs Lecce in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 07 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Result: Cagliari 1-0 Lecce
Cagliari vs Lecce finished 1-0. Cagliari won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Lecce Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at 1.31, was a half-win.
Cagliari face Lecce in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Monday 07 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Cagliari have 3 wins from their last 5, while Lecce have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Cagliari won 3, Lecce won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cagliari win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cagliari vs Lecce with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Cagliari vs Lecce is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Lecce Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.31, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Cagliari win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points no (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Lecce with a +0.25 start at odds 2.19 (+13.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Cagliari and Lecce. Wins shown from Cagliari’s perspective: Cagliari 3 · Lecce 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Cagliari | 1 – 0 | Lecce | W |
| 2026-02-16 | Cagliari | 0 – 2 | Lecce | L |
| 2025-09-19 | Lecce | 1 – 2 | Cagliari | W |
| 2025-01-19 | Cagliari | 4 – 1 | Lecce | W |
| 2024-08-31 | Lecce | 1 – 0 | Cagliari | L |
📈 Recent form
Cagliari come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Lecce. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Hellas Verona.
- WCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
- LCagliari 1-2 Hellas VeronaCoppa Italia
- LCagliari 0-1 InterSerie A
- WParma 0-1 CagliariSerie A
- WCagliari 1-0 ArezzoCoppa Italia
Lecce come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Cagliari.
- LCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
- LLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
- WVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A
- LPalermo 2-0 LecceCoppa Italia
- WLecce 1-0 SS MonopoliFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- R. IdrissiKnee Injury
- KevinPersonal Reasons
- Y. MinaCalf Injury
- M. NzolaLacking Match Fitness
- Y. SugawaraNot in squad
- Y. TrepyInjury
- W. GeubbelsInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Cagliari at 39% to win and Lecce at 30%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Cagliari win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce Win | 30% | @ 4.30 | +29.9% |
| Draw | 30% | @ 3.15 | -4.3% |
| Cagliari Win | 39% | @ 1.91 | -24.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lecce or Draw at 1.85 (59% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce or Draw | 59% | @ 1.85 | +8.3% |
| Cagliari or Draw | 68% | @ 1.20 | -18.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 66% | @ 1.46 | -4.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | @ 2.45 | -4.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 81% | @ 1.17 | -5.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | @ 4.90 | -6.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | @ 1.52 | -7.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 34% | @ 2.65 | -9.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 44% | @ 2.14 | -4.8% |
| BTTS No | 56% | @ 1.67 | -7.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Cagliari or Lecce is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce -0.75 | 28% | @ 5.75 | +58.7% |
| Lecce -0.25 | 39% | @ 3.62 | +40.7% |
| Lecce 0 | 45% | @ 3.04 | +37.9% |
| Lecce -0.5 | 32% | @ 4.21 | +35.9% |
| Lecce +0.25 | 52% | @ 2.19 | +13.6% |
| Lecce +0.5 | 59% | @ 1.86 | +8.9% |
| Lecce +0.75 | 64% | @ 1.61 | +3.4% |
| Lecce +1.5 | 80% | @ 1.25 | +1.0% |
| Lecce +1.25 | 75% | 1.31 | -1.8% |
| Lecce +1.75 | 84% | 1.17 | -2.3% |
| Lecce +1 | 70% | 1.39 | -3.4% |
| Cagliari -1 | 30% | 3.08 | -6.2% |
| Cagliari -1.25 | 25% | 3.54 | -11.5% |
| Cagliari -0.75 | 36% | 2.35 | -15.5% |
| Cagliari +0.5 | 68% | 1.24 | -16.1% |
| Cagliari -0.5 | 41% | 2.02 | -16.3% |
| Cagliari +0.75 | 72% | 1.14 | -17.5% |
| Cagliari -1.75 | 16% | 5.00 | -17.7% |
| Cagliari -0.25 | 48% | 1.70 | -18.4% |
| Cagliari +0.25 | 61% | 1.29 | -21.1% |
| Cagliari -1.5 | 20% | 3.96 | -22.7% |
| Cagliari 0 | 55% | 1.40 | -23.6% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our main pick is Lecce Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.31, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Lecce with a +0.25 start at 2.19 (+13.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our model makes a Cagliari win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Cagliari vs Lecce.
What is the predicted score for Cagliari vs Lecce?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Cagliari and 0.98 for Lecce. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Cagliari and Lecce play?
Kick-off is Monday 07 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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