⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitoria vs Gremio in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Monday 07 September 2026, 23:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Vitoria face Gremio in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Monday 07 September 2026, 23:00 UTC. Recent form: Vitoria have 1 win from their last 5, while Gremio have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Gremio won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitoria win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitoria vs Gremio with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.27

82%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.26 – 0.96 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.9%	10.4%	5.0%	1.6%	0.4%
1	13.7%	13.1%	6.3%	2.0%	0.5%
2	8.6%	8.3%	4.0%	1.3%	0.3%
3	3.6%	3.5%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
4	1.1%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Vitoria winDrawGremio win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitoria vs Gremio is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Vitoria win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points no (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.76 (+8.7% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.76, 62% model probability, +8.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Vitoria 40%Draw 33%Gremio 27%

40%33%27%

40%

Vitoria Win

62%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

+8.7%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Vitoria and Gremio. Wins shown from Vitoria’s perspective: 1 drawn · Gremio 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-12-04	Vitoria	1 – 1	Gremio	D
2024-07-21	Gremio	2 – 0	Vitoria	L

📈 Recent form

Vitoria

Vitoria come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Botafogo. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Vasco DA Gama.

LVitoria 0-2 Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
LAtletico-MG 2-1 VitoriaBrazilian Série A
LVasco DA Gama 1-0 VitoriaCopa Do Brasil
LVitoria 0-2 BahiaBrazilian Série A
WVitoria 1-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A

Gremio

Gremio come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at RB Bragantino.

WGremio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
WGremio 3-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
DInternacional 0-0 GremioCopa Do Brasil
LRB Bragantino 1-0 GremioBrazilian Série A
LAtletico-MG 3-0 GremioBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vitoria

Alex BrunoNot in squad
CamutangaBroken Leg
DuduBack Injury
EduAchilles Tendon Injury
Nathan MendesKnee Injury
T. PochettinoNot in squad
R. RamosKnee Injury
RiccieliCalf Injury

Gremio

DodiKnee Injury
MarlonSuspended (cards)
J. CabralMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitoria at 40% to win and Gremio at 27%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Vitoria win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	33%	@ 3.35	+9.6%
Gremio Win	27%	@ 3.50	-4.1%
Vitoria Win	40%	@ 2.05	-18.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Gremio or Draw at 1.74 (57% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Gremio or Draw	57%	@ 1.74	-1.2%
Vitoria or Draw	69%	@ 1.28	-11.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	35%	@ 3.30	+15.4%
Under 2.5	62%	@ 1.76	+8.7%
Under 3.5	82%	@ 1.27	+3.6%
Over 1.5	65%	@ 1.32	-14.2%
Over 2.5	38%	@ 2.02	-22.7%
Over 3.5	18%	@ 3.60	-33.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	55%	@ 1.92	+6.2%
BTTS Yes	45%	@ 1.79	-20.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	47%
Dixon-Coles	Home	37%
GradientBoosting	Home	38%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.44 for the home side, 1.17 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (17%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (14%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Gremio?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with 82% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.76 (+8.7% value).

Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Gremio?

Our model makes a Vitoria win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Vitoria vs Gremio.

What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Gremio?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.26 for Vitoria and 0.96 for Gremio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitoria and Gremio play?

Kick-off is Monday 07 September 2026, 23:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.