Mon 7 Sep1-0Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vitória vs Grêmio Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória vs Grêmio in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Monday 07 September 2026, 23:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Vitória 1-0 Grêmio

Vitória vs Grêmio finished 1-0. Vitória won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Vitória face Grêmio in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Monday 07 September 2026, 23:00 UTC. Recent form: Vitória have 1 win from their last 5, while Grêmio have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Vitória won 1, Grêmio won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitória win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória vs Grêmio with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.27

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.26 – 1.01 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	10.4%	5.3%	1.8%	0.4%
1	13.0%	13.1%	6.6%	2.2%	0.6%
2	8.2%	8.3%	4.2%	1.4%	0.4%
3	3.4%	3.5%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%
4	1.1%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitória winDrawGrêmio win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitória vs Grêmio comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Vitória win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Vitória 40%Draw 32%Grêmio 28%

40%32%28%

40%

Vitória Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Vitória and Grêmio. Wins shown from Vitória’s perspective: Vitória 1 · 1 drawn · Grêmio 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-07	Vitória	1 – 0	Grêmio	W
2024-12-04	Vitória	1 – 1	Grêmio	D
2024-07-21	Grêmio	2 – 0	Vitória	L

📈 Recent form

Vitória

Vitória come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Cruzeiro.

LVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
WVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LVitória 0-2 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Botafogo.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
LVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
WGrêmio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 15 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vitória

AndersonKnee Injury
BaralhasNot in squad
CacaSuspended
CamutangaBroken Leg
DuduBack Injury
EduAchilles Tendon Injury
Emmanuel MartinezInjury
Nathan MendesKnee Injury

Grêmio

F. AmuzuNot in squad
J. CabralMuscle Injury
DodiKnee Injury
MarlonSuspended (cards)

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitória at 40% to win and Grêmio at 28%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Vitória win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória Win	40%	46%	@ 2.05
Draw	32%	28%	@ 3.35
Grêmio Win	28%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitória or Draw at 1.28 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória or Draw	69%	73%	@ 1.28
Grêmio or Draw	57%	54%	@ 1.74

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	74%	@ 1.27
Over 1.5	66%	71%	@ 1.32
Under 2.5	60%	53%	@ 1.76
Over 2.5	40%	47%	@ 2.02
Under 1.5	34%	29%	@ 3.30
Over 3.5	20%	26%	@ 3.60

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	48%	@ 1.92
BTTS Yes	46%	52%	@ 1.79

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vitória or Grêmio is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio +1.75	83%	83%	1.14
Grêmio +1.5	80%	77%	1.24
Vitória +1	78%	86%	1.10
Grêmio +1.25	74%	75%	1.27
Vitória +0.75	73%	79%	1.21
Vitória +0.5	69%	73%	1.31
Grêmio +1	68%	72%	1.33
Grêmio +0.75	63%	63%	1.52
Vitória +0.25	62%	68%	1.40
Grêmio +0.5	57%	55%	1.72
Vitória 0	56%	62%	1.52
Grêmio +0.25	51%	48%	@ 2.01
Vitória -0.25	49%	52%	1.86
Grêmio 0	44%	38%	@ 2.52
Vitória -0.5	43%	45%	2.13
Grêmio -0.25	38%	32%	@ 3.03
Vitória -0.75	37%	37%	2.54
Vitória -1	32%	28%	@ 3.35
Grêmio -0.5	31%	27%	@ 3.50
Grêmio -0.75	27%	21%	@ 4.53
Vitória -1.25	26%	25%	3.79
Grêmio -1	22%	14%	@ 7.00
Vitória -1.5	20%	23%	4.11
Vitória -1.75	17%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Vitória 44%Draw 29%Grêmio 27%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória vs Grêmio?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Vitória vs Grêmio?

Our model makes a Vitória win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Vitória vs Grêmio.

What is the predicted score for Vitória vs Grêmio?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.26 for Vitória and 1.01 for Grêmio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitória and Grêmio play?

Kick-off is Monday 07 September 2026, 23:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.