⚽ Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Lille Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toulouse vs Lille in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Thursday 03 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Toulouse face Lille in the Ligue 1, kicking off Thursday 03 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Toulouse have 2 wins from their last 5, while Lille have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 1, Lille won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lille win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.1-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toulouse vs Lille with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lille or Draw @ 1.30

75%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.07 – 1.47 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	11.6%	8.5%	4.2%	1.5%
1	8.4%	12.4%	9.1%	4.5%	1.6%
2	4.5%	6.6%	4.9%	2.4%	0.9%
3	1.6%	2.4%	1.7%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Toulouse winDrawLille win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Lille is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Lille or Draw at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Lille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

Best value

Lille or Draw at odds 1.30, 75% model probability, -2.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Toulouse 24%Draw 28%Lille 48%

24%28%48%

48%

Lille Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

-2.7%

Best value: Lille or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Toulouse and Lille. Wins shown from Toulouse’s perspective: Toulouse 1 · Lille 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-12	Toulouse	0 – 4	Lille	L
2025-09-14	Lille	2 – 1	Toulouse	L
2025-04-12	Toulouse	1 – 2	Lille	L
2024-10-05	Lille	2 – 1	Toulouse	L
2024-02-25	Toulouse	3 – 1	Lille	W

📈 Recent form

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Real Sociedad. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Lyon.

DStade Brestois 29 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1
LToulouse 1-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
WToulouse 2-1 Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs
DToulouse 1-1 RodezFriendlies Clubs

Lille

Lille come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at OH Leuven. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DLille 2-2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
WAngers 0-2 LilleLigue 1
DEverton 1-1 LilleFriendlies Clubs
DHamburger SV 2-2 LilleFriendlies Clubs
WOH Leuven 3-6 LilleFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Toulouse

A. FrancisMuscle Injury
N. SigurTransfer negotiations
A. DonnumPersonal Reasons

Lille

H. IgamaneKnee Injury
T. NianzouInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Toulouse at 24% to win and Lille at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Lille win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lille Win	48%	@ 2.12	+2.2%
Draw	28%	@ 3.30	-6.8%
Toulouse Win	24%	@ 3.40	-19.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lille or Draw at 1.30 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lille or Draw	75%	@ 1.30	-2.7%
Toulouse or Draw	50%	@ 1.68	-15.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	75%	@ 1.28	-4.1%
Over 1.5	72%	@ 1.32	-4.9%
Under 2.5	53%	@ 1.78	-5.0%
Over 2.5	47%	@ 2.02	-5.8%
Under 1.5	28%	@ 3.30	-7.9%
Over 3.5	25%	@ 3.60	-9.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	49%	@ 1.95	-4.5%
BTTS Yes	51%	@ 1.78	-9.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	45%
Dixon-Coles	Away	47%
GradientBoosting	Away	50%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.05 for the home side, 1.59 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Lille?

Our main pick is Lille or Draw at odds 1.30, with 75% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Lille?

Our model makes a Lille win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille.

What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lille?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.07 for Toulouse and 1.47 for Lille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Toulouse and Lille play?

Kick-off is Thursday 03 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.