⚽ Ligue 1
Marseille vs Paris FC Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Marseille vs Paris FC in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Marseille 2-3 Paris FC
Marseille vs Paris FC finished 2-3. Paris FC won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Marseille face Paris FC in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Marseille have 3 wins from their last 5, while Paris FC have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Marseille won 1, Paris FC won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.8-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Marseille vs Paris FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Marseille vs Paris FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Paris FC with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Marseille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Marseille and Paris FC. Wins shown from Marseille’s perspective: Marseille 1 · 1 drawn · Paris FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Marseille | 2 – 3 | Paris FC | L |
| 2026-01-31 | Paris FC | 2 – 2 | Marseille | D |
| 2025-08-23 | Marseille | 5 – 2 | Paris FC | W |
📈 Recent form
Marseille come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain.
- LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
- LRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
- LMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
- LMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
Paris FC come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Nice.
- WParis FC 2-1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
- WMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
- WParis FC 3-0 NiceLigue 1
- DEstac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- G. KondogbiaInjury
- T. NnadiInjury
- J. IkoneHamstring Injury
- E. MbembaNot in squad
- OtavioInjury
- N. SanguiInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Marseille at 49% to win and Paris FC at 24%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille Win | 49% | 53% | @ 1.76 |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | @ 3.85 |
| Paris FC Win | 24% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Marseille or Draw at 1.22 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille or Draw | 75% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| Paris FC or Draw | 50% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 80% | @ 1.17 |
| Under 3.5 | 63% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 41% | @ 2.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 60% | @ 1.56 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 40% | @ 2.30 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Marseille or Paris FC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC +2 | 81% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Paris FC +1.75 | 78% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Marseille +0.5 | 75% | 76% | 1.26 |
| Paris FC +1.5 | 74% | 69% | @ 1.39 |
| Marseille +0.25 | 69% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Paris FC +1.25 | 68% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Marseille 0 | 63% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Paris FC +1 | 62% | 61% | 1.57 |
| Marseille -0.25 | 56% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Paris FC +0.75 | 56% | 53% | @ 1.79 |
| Marseille -0.5 | 50% | 53% | 1.83 |
| Paris FC +0.5 | 50% | 47% | @ 2.06 |
| Marseille -0.75 | 44% | 47% | 2.05 |
| Paris FC +0.25 | 44% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Marseille -1 | 38% | 39% | 2.44 |
| Paris FC 0 | 37% | 31% | @ 3.07 |
| Marseille -1.25 | 32% | 35% | 2.75 |
| Paris FC -0.25 | 31% | 27% | @ 3.52 |
| Marseille -1.5 | 26% | 31% | 3.08 |
| Paris FC -0.5 | 25% | 24% | 3.94 |
| Marseille -1.75 | 22% | 25% | 3.80 |
| Marseille -2 | 19% | 18% | 5.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Paris FC?
Our model's main pick is Paris FC with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Paris FC?
Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.3 scoreline for Marseille vs Paris FC.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Paris FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.80 for Marseille and 1.28 for Paris FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Marseille and Paris FC play?
Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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