vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Philadelphia Union 5-0 FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati finished 5-0. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, FC Cincinnati Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.35, did not land.
Philadelphia Union face FC Cincinnati in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Philadelphia Union have 3 wins from their last 5, while FC Cincinnati have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 1, FC Cincinnati won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 2.1-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is FC Cincinnati Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.35, the selection our model is most confident in at 86%. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points yes (74%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is FC Cincinnati with a +0.25 start at odds 2.62 (+44.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati. Wins shown from Philadelphia Union’s perspective: Philadelphia Union 1 · 1 drawn · FC Cincinnati 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Philadelphia Union | 5 – 0 | FC Cincinnati | W |
| 2024-10-20 | Philadelphia Union | 1 – 2 | FC Cincinnati | L |
| 2024-06-19 | FC Cincinnati | 4 – 3 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2023-11-26 | FC Cincinnati | 1 – 0 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2023-09-16 | Philadelphia Union | 2 – 2 | FC Cincinnati | D |
📈 Recent form
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to FC Cincinnati. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- DPhiladelphia Union 2-2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
FC Cincinnati come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to New York City FC. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Philadelphia Union.
- LPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- LNashville SC 4-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- DFC Cincinnati 1-1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- WFC Cincinnati 2-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- DOrlando City SC 1-1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. AnelloMuscle Injury
- P. NdingaHamstring Injury
- S. GidiInjury
- K. FletcherKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Philadelphia Union at 39% to win and FC Cincinnati at 36%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati Win | 36% | @ 4.20 | +52.2% |
| Draw | 25% | @ 4.25 | +5.0% |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 39% | @ 1.68 | -34.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Cincinnati or Draw at 2.12 (62% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati or Draw | 62% | @ 2.12 | +31.0% |
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 65% | @ 1.21 | -21.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 78% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 60% | @ 1.94 | +15.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | @ 1.36 | +6.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | @ 1.10 | +1.1% |
| Under 3.5 | 40% | @ 1.82 | -26.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | @ 3.05 | -34.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | @ 6.50 | -47.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 74%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 74% | @ 1.40 | +3.1% |
| BTTS No | 26% | @ 2.75 | -27.5% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Philadelphia Union or FC Cincinnati is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati -0.75 | 30% | @ 5.75 | +74.6% |
| FC Cincinnati 0 | 49% | @ 3.43 | +66.6% |
| FC Cincinnati -0.25 | 42% | @ 3.83 | +60.6% |
| FC Cincinnati +0.25 | 55% | @ 2.62 | +44.6% |
| FC Cincinnati +0.75 | 67% | @ 1.98 | +32.7% |
| FC Cincinnati +0.5 | 62% | @ 2.15 | +32.7% |
| FC Cincinnati +1 | 72% | @ 1.71 | +23.6% |
| FC Cincinnati +1.25 | 78% | @ 1.59 | +23.2% |
| FC Cincinnati +1.5 | 83% | @ 1.47 | +21.4% |
| FC Cincinnati +1.75 | 86% | @ 1.35 | +15.9% |
| FC Cincinnati +2 | 88% | @ 1.24 | +9.5% |
| Philadelphia Union +0.75 | 70% | 1.14 | -20.6% |
| Philadelphia Union +0.5 | 65% | 1.21 | -21.8% |
| Philadelphia Union +0.25 | 58% | 1.26 | -26.6% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 | 51% | 1.32 | -32.1% |
| Philadelphia Union -0.25 | 45% | 1.50 | -32.8% |
| Philadelphia Union -0.5 | 38% | 1.68 | -35.9% |
| Philadelphia Union -0.75 | 33% | 1.86 | -38.5% |
| Philadelphia Union -1 | 28% | 2.13 | -41.0% |
| Philadelphia Union -1.25 | 22% | 2.40 | -46.1% |
| Philadelphia Union -1.75 | 14% | 3.18 | -54.0% |
| Philadelphia Union -2 | 12% | 3.90 | -54.4% |
| Philadelphia Union -1.5 | 17% | 2.62 | -54.7% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
Our main pick is FC Cincinnati Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.35, with 86% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is FC Cincinnati with a +0.25 start at 2.62 (+44.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 2.1-2.0 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-2, based on expected goals of 2.15 for Philadelphia Union and 2.01 for FC Cincinnati. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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