vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
New York City FC vs New England Revolution Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York City FC vs New England Revolution in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 10 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.
New York City FC face New England Revolution in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Thursday 10 September 2026, 00:00 UTC. Recent form: New York City FC have 0 wins from their last 5, while New England Revolution have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York City FC vs New England Revolution with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for New York City FC vs New England Revolution is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is New York City FC or Draw at odds 1.41, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between New York City FC and New England Revolution. Wins shown from New York City FC’s perspective: New York City FC 2 · 3 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | New England Revolution | 1 – 1 | New York City FC | D |
| 2024-05-25 | New England Revolution | 0 – 1 | New York City FC | W |
| 2024-04-13 | New York City FC | 2 – 0 | New England Revolution | W |
| 2023-06-03 | New York City FC | 0 – 0 | New England Revolution | D |
| 2023-04-01 | New England Revolution | 1 – 1 | New York City FC | D |
📈 Recent form
New York City FC come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at FC Cincinnati.
- DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- DNew England Revolution 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- LFC Cincinnati 2-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- LNew York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
New England Revolution come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at DC United. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Los Angeles Galaxy.
- LLos Angeles Galaxy 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- WColumbus Crew 1-3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DNew England Revolution 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- WDC United 0-3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- LToronto FC 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- D. BaieraKnee Injury
- A. FarnosInjury
- M. MoralezKnee Injury
- K. ParksInjury
- Talles MagnoMuscle Injury
- K. TrewinAnkle Injury
- L. CampanaHamstring Injury
- J. WynderNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices New York City FC at 40% to win and New England Revolution at 29%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 31% | @ 3.45 | +8.3% |
| New York City FC Win | 40% | @ 2.33 | -6.8% |
| New England Revolution Win | 29% | @ 2.80 | -19.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York City FC or Draw at 1.41 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC or Draw | 69% | @ 1.41 | -3.1% |
| New England Revolution or Draw | 57% | @ 1.57 | -9.9% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 46% | @ 2.16 | -0.1% |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | @ 1.44 | -1.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | @ 4.35 | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | @ 1.20 | -7.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | @ 1.66 | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | @ 2.70 | -15.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 44% | @ 2.32 | +1.5% |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | @ 1.54 | -13.3% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 52% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 43% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 40% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.42 for the home side, 1.18 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
Our main pick is New York City FC or Draw at odds 1.41, with 69% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for New York City FC vs New England Revolution.
What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.50 for New York City FC and 1.33 for New England Revolution. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do New York City FC and New England Revolution play?
Kick-off is Thursday 10 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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