⚽ Major League Soccer

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

San Diego face San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC. Recent form: San Diego have 3 wins from their last 5, while San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a San Diego win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 2.6-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.38

83%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.59 – 1.96 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.1%	2.1%	2.0%	1.3%	0.6%
1	2.7%	5.4%	5.3%	3.4%	1.7%
2	3.5%	6.9%	6.8%	4.4%	2.2%
3	3.1%	6.0%	5.9%	3.8%	1.9%
4	2.0%	3.9%	3.8%	2.5%	1.2%

Projected score: 2-1

San Diego winDrawSan Jose Earthquakes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 83%. On the match result, the model rates a San Diego win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (83%), both teams to score points yes (79%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 3.5 goals at odds 1.97 (+31.1% model value).

Best value

Over 3.5 at odds 1.97, 67% model probability, +31.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

San Diego 48%Draw 25%San Jose Earthquakes 27%

48%25%27%

48%

San Diego Win

83%

Over 2.5 goals

79%

BTTS yes

+31.1%

Best value: Over 3.5

📈 Recent form

San Diego

San Diego come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Colorado Rapids. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Orlando City SC.

LOrlando City SC 1-0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
WSan Diego 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
WSan Diego 3-0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
LPortland Timbers 3-1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
WLos Angeles FC 0-1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 10. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at home to Minnesota United FC.

DAustin 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
DHouston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
LSan Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
LLos Angeles Galaxy 1-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
LSan Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

San Diego

M. IngvartsenInjury
P. SisniegaBack Injury

San Jose Earthquakes

N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
E. EdwardsLower-Body Injury
D. JohnsonLower-Body Injury
D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
P. MarieInjury
T. WernerInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices San Diego at 48% to win and San Jose Earthquakes at 27%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a San Diego win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
San Jose Earthquakes Win	27%	@ 3.95	+6.8%
Draw	25%	@ 4.10	+3.6%
San Diego Win	48%	@ 1.74	-17.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is San Jose Earthquakes or Draw at 2.04 (52% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw	52%	@ 2.04	+7.0%
San Diego or Draw	73%	@ 1.23	-10.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.6-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 83% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	67%	@ 1.97	+31.1%
Over 2.5	83%	@ 1.38	+14.8%
Over 1.5	94%	@ 1.11	+4.4%
Under 3.5	33%	@ 1.79	-40.2%
Under 2.5	17%	@ 2.95	-50.3%
Under 1.5	6%	@ 6.25	-63.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 79%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	79%	@ 1.41	+11.2%
BTTS No	21%	@ 2.70	-42.9%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	57%
Dixon-Coles	Home	47%
GradientBoosting	Home	45%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.54 for the home side, 1.09 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (6%), 2-1 (6%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 83% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 3.5 goals at 1.97 (+31.1% value).

Who is the favourite for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Our model makes a San Diego win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 2.6-2.0 scoreline for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes.

What is the predicted score for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.59 for San Diego and 1.96 for San Jose Earthquakes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes play?

Kick-off is Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.