⚽ Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AZ Alkmaar face Willem II in the Eredivisie, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: AZ Alkmaar have 4 wins from their last 4, while Willem II have 0 wins from their last 4. In their last 2 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 1, Willem II won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 76%, projecting a 2.6-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.27

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.56 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.9%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%
1	7.4%	7.3%	3.6%	1.2%	0.3%
2	9.4%	9.3%	4.6%	1.5%	0.4%
3	8.0%	8.0%	3.9%	1.3%	0.3%
4	5.1%	5.1%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-0

AZ Alkmaar winDrawWillem II win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 76%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 3.5 goals at odds 2.08 (+9.5% model value).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 2.08, 53% model probability, +9.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

AZ Alkmaar 76%Draw 14%Willem II 10%

76%14%10%

76%

AZ Alkmaar Win

69%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

+9.5%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II. Wins shown from AZ Alkmaar’s perspective: AZ Alkmaar 1 · Willem II 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-02-02	Willem II	0 – 2	AZ Alkmaar	W
2024-11-10	AZ Alkmaar	1 – 2	Willem II	L

📈 Recent form

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to GO Ahead Eagles. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WUtrecht 1-4 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 2-0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie

Willem II

Willem II come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 3, scoring 3 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Excelsior.

LWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
LWillem II 1-4 NEC NijmegenEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AZ Alkmaar

D. KasiusGroin Injury
S. ResinkKnee Injury
K. SmitInjury

Willem II

A. CulumFoot Injury
T. Didillon HodlHamstring Injury
A. LachkarGroin Injury
J. SchuurmanKnock
A. ZarroukSurgery

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AZ Alkmaar at 76% to win and Willem II at 10%, with the draw at 14%. Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Willem II Win	10%	@ 15.00	+53.7%
Draw	14%	@ 8.00	+12.6%
AZ Alkmaar Win	76%	@ 1.14	-13.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Willem II or Draw at 5.25 (26% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Willem II or Draw	26%	@ 5.25	+34.8%
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	90%	@ 1.01	-8.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.6-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	31%	@ 3.60	+12.3%
Under 1.5	13%	@ 8.50	+11.4%
Under 3.5	53%	@ 2.08	+9.5%
Over 1.5	87%	@ 1.06	-7.9%
Over 2.5	69%	@ 1.27	-12.6%
Over 3.5	47%	@ 1.72	-18.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	58%	@ 1.82	+5.8%
BTTS No	42%	@ 1.88	-21.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	66%
Dixon-Coles	Home	75%
GradientBoosting	Home	79%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 2.38 for the home side, 0.71 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.27, with 69% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 3.5 goals at 2.08 (+9.5% value).

Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?

Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 76%. It projects an expected 2.6-1.0 scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II.

What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.56 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.99 for Willem II. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AZ Alkmaar and Willem II play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.