⚽ La Liga

Racing Santander vs Alaves Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Racing Santander vs Alaves in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Racing Santander face Alaves in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 12:00 UTC. Recent form: Racing Santander have 1 win from their last 4, while Alaves have 3 wins from their last 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Racing Santander win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Racing Santander vs Alaves with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.61 – 1.07 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	7.3%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%
1	11.0%	11.8%	6.3%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.9%	9.5%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.8%	5.1%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Racing Santander winDrawAlaves win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Racing Santander vs Alaves is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Racing Santander win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.36, 72% model probability, -2.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Racing Santander 40%Draw 29%Alaves 31%

40%29%31%

40%

Racing Santander Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

-2.3%

Best value: Under 3.5

📈 Recent form

Racing Santander

Racing Santander come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Sporting Gijon. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Rayo Vallecano.

LRayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
WRacing Santander 3-2 ElcheLa Liga
LGetafe 1-0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
DRacing Santander 2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
WRacing Santander 4-1 Sporting GijonFriendlies Clubs

Alaves

Alaves come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Osasuna. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WAlaves 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WAlaves 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
DRayo Vallecano 1-1 AlavesLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 GetafeLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 CastellónFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Racing Santander

A. MartinKnee Injury
S. ErikssonShoulder Injury

Alaves

F. GarcesSuspended
M. RodriguezAnkle Injury
T. MartinezFoot Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Racing Santander at 40% to win and Alaves at 31%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Racing Santander win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	29%	@ 3.40	-1.1%
Racing Santander Win	40%	@ 2.43	-2.9%
Alaves Win	31%	@ 2.80	-13.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Racing Santander or Draw at 1.38 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Racing Santander or Draw	68%	@ 1.38	-6.7%
Alaves or Draw	59%	@ 1.49	-12.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	25%	@ 3.90	-1.6%
Under 2.5	50%	@ 1.97	-1.8%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.36	-2.3%
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.23	-8.0%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.80	-9.7%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 3.05	-14.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	48%	@ 2.14	+1.7%
BTTS Yes	52%	@ 1.60	-16.0%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Racing Santander vs Alaves?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with 72% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Racing Santander vs Alaves?

Our model makes a Racing Santander win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Racing Santander vs Alaves.

What is the predicted score for Racing Santander vs Alaves?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.61 for Racing Santander and 1.07 for Alaves. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Racing Santander and Alaves play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.