⚽ Serie A

Genoa vs Frosinone Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Genoa vs Frosinone in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Genoa face Frosinone in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Genoa have 0 wins from their last 5, while Frosinone have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 2 meetings, Frosinone won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Genoa win the most likely result at 34%, projecting a 1.3-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Genoa vs Frosinone with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.32

77%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.28 – 1.54 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	9.2%	7.1%	3.6%	1.4%
1	7.6%	11.7%	9.0%	4.6%	1.8%
2	4.9%	7.5%	5.8%	3.0%	1.1%
3	2.1%	3.2%	2.5%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.7%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Genoa winDrawFrosinone win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Genoa vs Frosinone is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates a Genoa win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 34%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (53%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Frosinone or Draw at odds 1.83 (+13.7% model value).

Best value

Frosinone or Draw at odds 1.83, 62% model probability, +13.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Genoa 34%Draw 33%Frosinone 32%

34%33%32%

34%

Genoa Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

+13.7%

Best value: Frosinone or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Genoa and Frosinone. Wins shown from Genoa’s perspective: 1 drawn · Frosinone 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-03-30	Genoa	1 – 1	Frosinone	D
2023-11-26	Frosinone	2 – 1	Genoa	L

📈 Recent form

Genoa

Genoa come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Ascoli. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to Como.

LGenoa 1-4 ComoSerie A
LLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A
LGenoa 0-2 NapoliSerie A
WGenoa 4-1 AscoliCoppa Italia
LGenoa 0-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs

Frosinone

Frosinone come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Fiorentina. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Juventus.

WFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
WFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A
LFrosinone 0-1 JuventusSerie A
WFrosinone 4-1 Juve StabiaCoppa Italia

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Genoa

E. HavelAnkle Injury
L. VenturinoKnee Injury

Frosinone

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Genoa at 34% to win and Frosinone at 32%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Genoa win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Frosinone Win	32%	@ 3.80	+22.5%
Draw	33%	@ 3.40	+13.3%
Genoa Win	34%	@ 1.93	-33.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Frosinone or Draw at 1.83 (62% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Frosinone or Draw	62%	@ 1.83	+13.7%
Genoa or Draw	64%	@ 1.25	-19.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	31%	@ 3.60	+12.5%
Over 2.5	54%	@ 2.00	+7.1%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.32	+1.9%
Under 3.5	69%	@ 1.28	-12.0%
Under 2.5	46%	@ 1.77	-17.7%
Under 1.5	23%	@ 3.35	-23.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.82	-3.3%
BTTS No	47%	@ 1.92	-10.0%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Genoa vs Frosinone?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with 77% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Frosinone or Draw at 1.83 (+13.7% value).

Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Frosinone?

Our model makes a Genoa win the most likely result at 34%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline for Genoa vs Frosinone.

What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Frosinone?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.28 for Genoa and 1.54 for Frosinone. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Genoa and Frosinone play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.