⚽ Bundesliga

FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

FC Augsburg face Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: FC Augsburg have 4 wins from their last 5, while Bayer Leverkusen have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, FC Augsburg won 2, Bayer Leverkusen won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.2-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.40

63%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.21 – 2.03 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.9%	8.0%	8.1%	5.5%	2.8%
1	4.7%	9.6%	9.8%	6.6%	3.4%
2	2.9%	5.8%	5.9%	4.0%	2.0%
3	1.2%	2.3%	2.4%	1.6%	0.8%
4	0.3%	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-2

FC Augsburg winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 63%. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.80 (+6.9% model value).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.80, 59% model probability, +6.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

FC Augsburg 22%Draw 25%Bayer Leverkusen 52%

22%25%52%

52%

Bayer Leverkusen Win

63%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

+6.9%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen. Wins shown from FC Augsburg’s perspective: FC Augsburg 2 · Bayer Leverkusen 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-18	Bayer Leverkusen	1 – 2	FC Augsburg	W
2025-12-06	FC Augsburg	2 – 0	Bayer Leverkusen	W
2025-04-26	Bayer Leverkusen	2 – 0	FC Augsburg	L
2024-12-14	FC Augsburg	0 – 2	Bayer Leverkusen	L
2024-05-18	Bayer Leverkusen	2 – 1	FC Augsburg	L

📈 Recent form

FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt. Their only defeat in that run was 0-4 at Leeds.

WEintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC AugsburgBundesliga
WFC Augsburg 3-0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
WEnergie Cottbus 0-2 FC AugsburgDFB Pokal
LLeeds 4-0 FC AugsburgFriendlies Clubs
WFC Augsburg 3-2 SassuoloFriendlies Clubs

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Union Berlin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at SV Elversberg.

WBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
LSV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WSV Wehen 0-4 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal
WNewcastle 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs
LNottingham Forest 2-1 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

FC Augsburg

T. BreithauptInjury
S. MounieInjury
A. KadeInjury
F. SakarAnkle Injury
S. SusoMuscle Injury

Bayer Leverkusen

M. CulbreathInjury
G. DoueInjury
K. EichhornIllness
N. TellaInjury
M. TerrierMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FC Augsburg at 22% to win and Bayer Leverkusen at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	25%	@ 4.10	+3.6%
Bayer Leverkusen Win	52%	@ 1.80	-5.7%
FC Augsburg Win	22%	@ 4.10	-8.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.22 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	77%	@ 1.22	-5.8%
FC Augsburg or Draw	47%	@ 1.95	-8.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	37%	@ 3.00	+11.5%
Under 3.5	59%	@ 1.80	+6.9%
Under 1.5	17%	@ 6.00	-0.3%
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.12	-6.6%
Over 2.5	63%	@ 1.40	-12.0%
Over 3.5	41%	@ 2.00	-18.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	39%	@ 2.75	+7.0%
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 1.40	-14.5%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with 63% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 3.5 goals at 1.80 (+6.9% value).

Who is the favourite for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.0 scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen.

What is the predicted score for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.21 for FC Augsburg and 2.03 for Bayer Leverkusen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.