⚽ Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Nice Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Auxerre vs Nice in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Auxerre face Nice in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Auxerre have 2 wins from their last 5, while Nice have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Auxerre won 2, Nice won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Auxerre win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Auxerre vs Nice with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.37 – 1.21 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	9.2%	5.5%	2.2%	0.7%
1	10.4%	12.6%	7.6%	3.1%	0.9%
2	7.1%	8.6%	5.2%	2.1%	0.6%
3	3.2%	3.9%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.1%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Auxerre winDrawNice win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Auxerre vs Nice is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates an Auxerre win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.91, 52% model probability, +-0.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Auxerre 36%Draw 34%Nice 30%

36%34%30%

36%

Auxerre Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

+-0.0%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Auxerre and Nice. Wins shown from Auxerre’s perspective: Auxerre 2 · 1 drawn · Nice 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Auxerre	2 – 1	Nice	W
2025-08-23	Nice	3 – 1	Auxerre	L
2025-03-14	Nice	1 – 1	Auxerre	D
2024-08-18	Auxerre	2 – 1	Nice	W

📈 Recent form

Auxerre

Auxerre come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Werder Bremen. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Lyon.

LLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
LAuxerre 1-3 AngersLigue 1
LLens 5-2 AuxerreLigue 1
WWerder Bremen 0-1 AuxerreFriendlies Clubs
DAuxerre 1-1 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs

Nice

Nice come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 1 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Paris FC.

DNice 1-1 Le MansLigue 1
LParis FC 3-0 NiceLigue 1
DNice 0-0 LorientLigue 1
DHull City 0-0 NiceFriendlies Clubs
LJuventus 2-0 NiceFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Auxerre

A. DiousseKnee Injury
B. OkohKnee Injury
M. SenayaInjury
T. SiweMuscle Injury
S. FofanaGroin Injury
E. LegrosInjury
F. OppegardIllness
A. TuanzebeLacking Match Fitness

Nice

L. AbergelKnee Injury
M. BombitoLeg Injury
H. BoudaouiLacking Match Fitness
A. MendyKnee Injury
M. SansonSurgery

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Auxerre at 36% to win and Nice at 30%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes an Auxerre win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	34%	@ 3.30	+12.6%
Auxerre Win	36%	@ 2.55	-9.1%
Nice Win	30%	@ 2.80	-15.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Auxerre or Draw at 1.40 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Auxerre or Draw	66%	@ 1.40	-7.8%
Nice or Draw	60%	@ 1.50	-9.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	27%	@ 3.75	+1.7%
Under 2.5	52%	@ 1.91	+-0.0%
Under 3.5	74%	@ 1.33	-1.5%
Over 1.5	73%	@ 1.28	-6.7%
Over 2.5	48%	@ 1.91	-9.0%
Over 3.5	26%	@ 3.40	-11.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	47%	@ 2.05	-2.9%
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.70	-10.5%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Auxerre vs Nice?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 74% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Nice?

Our model makes an Auxerre win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Auxerre vs Nice.

What is the predicted score for Auxerre vs Nice?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Auxerre and 1.21 for Nice. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Auxerre and Nice play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.