⚽ Ligue 1

Paris FC vs Lyon Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Paris FC vs Lyon in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Paris FC face Lyon in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Paris FC have 3 wins from their last 5, while Lyon have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.5-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Paris FC vs Lyon with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lyon or Draw @ 1.50

64%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.54 – 1.62 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.2%	6.9%	5.6%	3.0%	1.2%
1	6.5%	10.6%	8.6%	4.6%	1.9%
2	5.0%	8.1%	6.6%	3.6%	1.4%
3	2.6%	4.2%	3.4%	1.8%	0.7%
4	1.0%	1.6%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Paris FC winDrawLyon win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Paris FC vs Lyon is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Lyon or Draw at odds 1.50, the selection our model is most confident in at 64%. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (63%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.67 (+2.1% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.67, 61% model probability, +2.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Paris FC 36%Draw 28%Lyon 37%

36%28%37%

37%

Lyon Win

61%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

+2.1%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Paris FC and Lyon. Wins shown from Paris FC’s perspective: 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-08	Lyon	1 – 1	Paris FC	D
2025-10-29	Paris FC	3 – 3	Lyon	D

📈 Recent form

Paris FC

Paris FC come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Nice. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Angers.

WMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
WParis FC 3-0 NiceLigue 1
DEstac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCLigue 1
LAngers 3-2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
DVfB Stuttgart 2-2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Auxerre. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Fenerbahçe.

WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1
LLyon 1-2 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
WToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1
DFenerbahçe 1-1 LyonUEFA Champions League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Paris FC

OtavioInjury
N. SanguiInjury
J. IkoneHamstring Injury
E. MbembaNot in squad

Lyon

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Paris FC at 36% to win and Lyon at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	28%	@ 3.60	-0.7%
Lyon Win	37%	@ 2.55	-6.4%
Paris FC Win	36%	@ 2.55	-8.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lyon or Draw at 1.50 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lyon or Draw	64%	@ 1.50	-4.4%
Paris FC or Draw	63%	@ 1.50	-5.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	39%	@ 2.75	+6.9%
Over 2.5	61%	@ 1.67	+2.1%
Over 1.5	82%	@ 1.22	+0.5%
Under 3.5	61%	@ 1.44	-12.0%
Under 2.5	39%	@ 2.20	-14.6%
Under 1.5	18%	@ 4.33	-23.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	63%	@ 1.57	-0.4%
BTTS No	37%	@ 2.25	-17.7%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Paris FC vs Lyon?

Our main pick is Lyon or Draw at odds 1.50, with 64% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.67 (+2.1% value).

Who is the favourite for Paris FC vs Lyon?

Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline for Paris FC vs Lyon.

What is the predicted score for Paris FC vs Lyon?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.54 for Paris FC and 1.62 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Paris FC and Lyon play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.