⚽ Brazilian Série A

Atletico-MG vs Fluminense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Atletico-MG face Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Atletico-MG have 2 wins from their last 5, while Fluminense have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Atletico-MG won 1, Fluminense won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atletico-MG win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.36

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.60 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	7.4%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%
1	10.3%	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.4%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Atletico-MG winDrawFluminense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates an Atletico-MG win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.15 (+11.0% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 2.15, 52% model probability, +11.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Atletico-MG 44%Draw 27%Fluminense 29%

44%27%29%

44%

Atletico-MG Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+11.0%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Atletico-MG and Fluminense. Wins shown from Atletico-MG’s perspective: Atletico-MG 1 · 2 drawn · Fluminense 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-08-25	Atletico-MG	0 – 2	Fluminense	L
2024-05-04	Fluminense	2 – 2	Atletico-MG	D
2023-10-29	Atletico-MG	2 – 0	Fluminense	W
2023-06-22	Fluminense	1 – 1	Atletico-MG	D

📈 Recent form

Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Cruzeiro. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Santos.

LSantos 2-0 Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LSao Paulo 2-0 Atletico-MGBrazilian Série A
WAtletico-MG 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
WAtletico-MG 2-1 VitoriaBrazilian Série A
DCruzeiro 1-1 Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil

Fluminense

Fluminense come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Platense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFluminense 2-0 PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFluminense 1-0 Vasco DA GamaBrazilian Série A
DAtletico Paranaense 3-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WFluminense 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A
DIndepend. Rivadavia 1-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atletico-MG

T. BorbasNot in squad
L. DuarteHamstring Injury
EversonNot in squad
T. PerezNot in squad
Ruan TressoldiInjury

Fluminense

AlissonHip Injury
John KennedyKnee Injury
Matheus ReisKnee Injury
Samuel XavierShoulder Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atletico-MG at 44% to win and Fluminense at 29%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Atletico-MG win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fluminense Win	29%	@ 3.40	-2.1%
Atletico-MG Win	44%	@ 2.20	-2.3%
Draw	27%	@ 3.25	-12.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fluminense or Draw at 1.67 (55% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fluminense or Draw	55%	@ 1.67	-7.9%
Atletico-MG or Draw	71%	@ 1.30	-8.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	30%	@ 4.00	+17.9%
Over 2.5	52%	@ 2.15	+11.0%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.36	+3.2%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.25	-11.8%
Under 2.5	48%	@ 1.67	-19.2%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 3.20	-22.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 1.91	+4.8%
BTTS No	45%	@ 1.91	-13.8%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.15 (+11.0% value).

Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?

Our model makes an Atletico-MG win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense.

What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Atletico-MG and 1.14 for Fluminense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atletico-MG and Fluminense play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.