⚽ Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Fortuna Sittard face Ajax in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Fortuna Sittard have 3 wins from their last 5, while Ajax have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Ajax won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.2-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.84

61%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.24 – 1.92 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.2%	8.1%	7.8%	5.0%	2.4%
1	5.3%	10.1%	9.7%	6.2%	3.0%
2	3.3%	6.3%	6.0%	3.8%	1.8%
3	1.3%	2.6%	2.5%	1.6%	0.8%
4	0.4%	0.8%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Fortuna Sittard winDrawAjax win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.84, the selection our model is most confident in at 61%. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.84, 61% model probability, +12.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Fortuna Sittard 24%Draw 24%Ajax 53%

24%24%53%

53%

Ajax Win

61%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

+12.5%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Fortuna Sittard and Ajax. Wins shown from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective: 1 drawn · Ajax 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-14	Ajax	4 – 1	Fortuna Sittard	L
2025-12-06	Fortuna Sittard	1 – 3	Ajax	L
2025-02-09	Fortuna Sittard	0 – 2	Ajax	L
2024-09-18	Ajax	5 – 0	Fortuna Sittard	L
2024-03-10	Ajax	2 – 2	Fortuna Sittard	D

📈 Recent form

Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Cambuur. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to AZ Alkmaar.

WADO Den Haag 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
WGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 3-1 CambuurEredivisie
DPSV Eindhoven 2-2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Telstar. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie
WAjax 5-3 FC SionUEFA Europa Conference
WFC Sion 2-4 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference
DAjax 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Fortuna Sittard

R. BayramKnee Injury
K. PetersonNot in squad
S. SimonsHamstring Injury
S. WylinNot in squad
I. MarquezInjury
Y. OukiliInjury
O. RomenyNot in squad

Ajax

S. AdingraFoot Injury
D. BlindInjury
R. BounidaInjury
A. BouwmanInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fortuna Sittard at 24% to win and Ajax at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fortuna Sittard Win	24%	@ 6.50	+54.0%
Draw	24%	@ 5.00	+17.8%
Ajax Win	53%	@ 1.40	-26.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fortuna Sittard or Draw at 2.85 (48% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fortuna Sittard or Draw	48%	@ 2.85	+36.0%
Ajax or Draw	77%	@ 1.10	-15.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	18%	@ 6.75	+19.2%
Under 2.5	39%	@ 3.05	+18.4%
Under 3.5	61%	@ 1.84	+12.5%
Over 1.5	82%	@ 1.09	-10.2%
Over 2.5	61%	@ 1.36	-16.8%
Over 3.5	39%	@ 1.95	-24.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	40%	@ 2.38	-5.6%
BTTS Yes	60%	@ 1.52	-8.3%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.84, with 61% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.9 scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax.

What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.92 for Ajax. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fortuna Sittard and Ajax play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.