⚽ Brazilian Série A

Santos vs Cruzeiro Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Santos face Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:00 UTC. Recent form: Santos have 3 wins from their last 5, while Cruzeiro have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Cruzeiro won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santos win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Cruzeiro with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.27

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.38 – 1.39 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	8.7%	6.1%	2.8%	1.0%
1	8.6%	12.0%	8.4%	3.9%	1.3%
2	6.0%	8.3%	5.8%	2.7%	0.9%
3	2.7%	3.8%	2.7%	1.2%	0.4%
4	0.9%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Santos winDrawCruzeiro win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Santos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (57%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.92 (+0.5% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.92, 52% model probability, +0.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Santos 39%Draw 25%Cruzeiro 36%

39%25%36%

39%

Santos Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

+0.5%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Santos and Cruzeiro. Wins shown from Santos’s perspective: Cruzeiro 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2023-09-14	Santos	0 – 3	Cruzeiro	L
2023-05-06	Cruzeiro	2 – 1	Santos	L

📈 Recent form

Santos

Santos come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atletico-MG. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Palmeiras.

WSantos 2-0 Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WInternacional 2-3 SantosBrazilian Série A
DSantos 0-0 PalmeirasCopa Do Brasil
WCorinthians 0-1 SantosBrazilian Série A
LPalmeiras 3-0 SantosCopa Do Brasil

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Atletico Paranaense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Atletico-MG.

WCruzeiro 3-1 Atletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LAtletico-MG 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
LVasco DA Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DCruzeiro 1-1 Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil
WCruzeiro 2-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Santos

G. EscobarSuspended (cards)
Gabriel BarbosaSuspended (cards)
NeymarThigh Injury
Vinicius LiraKnee Injury

Cruzeiro

Gabriel PecBroken Leg
Jonathan JesusInjury
L. SinisterraMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Santos at 39% to win and Cruzeiro at 36%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Santos win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Santos Win	39%	@ 2.60	+2.3%
Cruzeiro Win	36%	@ 2.60	-7.7%
Draw	25%	@ 3.30	-17.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Santos or Draw at 1.47 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Santos or Draw	65%	@ 1.47	-4.3%
Cruzeiro or Draw	61%	@ 1.46	-10.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	52%	@ 1.92	+0.5%
Over 3.5	30%	@ 3.30	-0.5%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.27	-3.0%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.33	-7.1%
Under 2.5	48%	@ 1.87	-10.9%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 3.60	-15.0%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	57%	@ 1.68	-4.7%
BTTS No	43%	@ 2.06	-10.8%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.92 (+0.5% value).

Who is the favourite for Santos vs Cruzeiro?

Our model makes a Santos win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline for Santos vs Cruzeiro.

What is the predicted score for Santos vs Cruzeiro?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.38 for Santos and 1.39 for Cruzeiro. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Santos and Cruzeiro play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.