Sun 13 Sep4-2Finished

⚽ Major League Soccer

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Result: St. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FC

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC finished 4-2. St. Louis City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.60, landed.

St. Louis City face Minnesota United FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: St. Louis City have 3 wins from their last 5, while Minnesota United FC have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, St. Louis City won 2, Minnesota United FC won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.9-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick
Minnesota United FC +1.5 @ 1.30
81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.95 – 1.78 goals)
0 1 2 3 4
0 2.4% 4.3% 3.8% 2.3% 1.0%
1 4.7% 8.3% 7.4% 4.4% 2.0%
2 4.6% 8.1% 7.2% 4.3% 1.9%
3 3.0% 5.3% 4.7% 2.8% 1.2%
4 1.4% 2.6% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6%
Projected score: 1-1
St. Louis City winDrawMinnesota United FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Minnesota United FC with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a St. Louis City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (71%).

📊 Key numbers

St. Louis City 43%Draw 24%Minnesota United FC 34%
43%24%34%
43%
St. Louis City Win
72%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC. Wins shown from St. Louis City’s perspective: St. Louis City 2 · Minnesota United FC 3.

Date Home Score Away Result
2026-09-13 St. Louis City 4 – 2 Minnesota United FC W
2024-10-20 Minnesota United FC 4 – 1 St. Louis City L
2024-09-15 St. Louis City 1 – 3 Minnesota United FC L
2023-09-24 Minnesota United FC 1 – 2 St. Louis City W
2023-04-02 St. Louis City 0 – 1 Minnesota United FC L

📈 Recent form

St. Louis City

St. Louis City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Colorado Rapids. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

  • WSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • WColorado Rapids 0-3 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
  • WSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • WVancouver Whitecaps 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Minnesota United FC

Minnesota United FC come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 17. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy.

  • LMinnesota United FC 2-3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
  • LSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • LMinnesota United FC 1-2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • LPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • DMinnesota United FC 3-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

St. Louis City
  • P. AultAnkle Injury
  • Celio PompeuKnee Injury
  • K. HiebertHip Injury
  • B. McSorleyLacking Match Fitness
Minnesota United FC
  • B. HlongwaneKnee Injury
  • P. StroudMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices St. Louis City at 43% to win and Minnesota United FC at 34%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely outcome.

Selection Model % Market % Odds
St. Louis City Win 43% 47% @ 1.98
Minnesota United FC Win 34% 27% @ 3.40
Draw 24% 26% @ 3.65

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is St. Louis City or Draw at 1.29 (68% model).

Selection Model % Market % Odds
St. Louis City or Draw 68% 73% @ 1.29
Minnesota United FC or Draw 59% 53% @ 1.79

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.

Selection Model % Market % Odds
Over 1.5 89% 80% @ 1.18
Over 2.5 72% 59% @ 1.60
Over 3.5 51% 37% @ 2.55
Under 3.5 49% 63% @ 1.49
Under 2.5 28% 41% @ 2.28
Under 1.5 11% 20% @ 4.60

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.

Selection Model % Market % Odds
BTTS Yes 71% 61% @ 1.53
BTTS No 29% 39% @ 2.35

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when St. Louis City or Minnesota United FC is a clear favourite.

Selection Model % Market % Odds
Minnesota United FC +2 87% 84% 1.12
St. Louis City +1.5 86% 86% 1.10
Minnesota United FC +1.75 84% 77% @ 1.22
St. Louis City +1.25 82% 86% 1.11
Minnesota United FC +1.5 81% 73% @ 1.30
St. Louis City +1 77% 85% 1.12
Minnesota United FC +1.25 75% 70% @ 1.38
St. Louis City +0.75 72% 78% 1.23
Minnesota United FC +1 70% 66% @ 1.45
St. Louis City +0.5 68% 73% 1.31
Minnesota United FC +0.75 64% 59% @ 1.64
St. Louis City +0.25 61% 68% 1.40
Minnesota United FC +0.5 59% 52% @ 1.83
St. Louis City 0 54% 64% 1.50
Minnesota United FC +0.25 52% 46% @ 2.10
St. Louis City -0.25 48% 54% 1.75
Minnesota United FC 0 46% 36% @ 2.62
St. Louis City -0.5 41% 48% 2.02
Minnesota United FC -0.25 39% 32% @ 3.03
St. Louis City -0.75 36% 41% 2.31
Minnesota United FC -0.5 32% 27% @ 3.47
St. Louis City -1 30% 34% 2.80
Minnesota United FC -0.75 28% 22% @ 4.25
St. Louis City -1.25 25% 30% 3.15
Minnesota United FC -1 23% 15% @ 6.25
St. Louis City -1.5 19% 27% 3.56
Minnesota United FC -1.25 18% 14% @ 6.60
St. Louis City -1.75 16% 23% 4.15
Minnesota United FC -1.5 14% 14% 7.00
St. Louis City -2 13% 16% 6.00

📈 How the market moved

21%36%51%09/0809/0909/1009/1109/1209/13

St. Louis City 47%Draw 25%Minnesota United FC 27%
Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?

Our model's main pick is Minnesota United FC with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?

Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.8 scoreline for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC.

What is the predicted score for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.95 for St. Louis City and 1.78 for Minnesota United FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.

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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.