⚽ Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Result: San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo finished 1-0. San Jose Earthquakes won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.55, landed.
San Jose Earthquakes face Houston Dynamo in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 02:30 UTC. Recent form: San Jose Earthquakes have no wins from their last 5, while Houston Dynamo have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 1, Houston Dynamo won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Houston Dynamo win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.3-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Houston Dynamo with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Houston Dynamo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo. Wins shown from San Jose Earthquakes’s perspective: San Jose Earthquakes 1 · 1 drawn · Houston Dynamo 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 0 | Houston Dynamo | W |
| 2026-08-30 | Houston Dynamo | 0 – 0 | San Jose Earthquakes | D |
| 2024-07-18 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0 – 1 | Houston Dynamo | L |
| 2024-03-31 | Houston Dynamo | 2 – 1 | San Jose Earthquakes | L |
| 2023-06-22 | Houston Dynamo | 4 – 1 | San Jose Earthquakes | L |
📈 Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Houston Dynamo.
- DSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DHouston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Houston Dynamo come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Real Salt Lake. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at San Jose Earthquakes.
- DHouston Dynamo 2-2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- LSan Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WHouston Dynamo 2-1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- DCharlotte 0-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- DHouston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
- E. EdwardsLower-Body Injury
- M. FlorianiSuspended (red card)
- D. JohnsonLower-Body Injury
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- P. JuddInjury
- T. WernerInjury
- L. FosterNot in squad
- J. MaurerConcussion
- M. SaracchiLower-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices San Jose Earthquakes at 31% to win and Houston Dynamo at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Houston Dynamo win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo Win | 40% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 31% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | @ 3.65 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Houston Dynamo or Draw at 1.50 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo or Draw | 68% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 59% | 63% | @ 1.49 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 81% | @ 1.15 |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | 61% | @ 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 61% | @ 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 64% | @ 1.45 |
| BTTS No | 44% | 36% | @ 2.55 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when San Jose Earthquakes or Houston Dynamo is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo +1.75 | 89% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Houston Dynamo +1.5 | 86% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.75 | 84% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Houston Dynamo +1.25 | 82% | 78% | @ 1.23 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.5 | 81% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Houston Dynamo +1 | 77% | 75% | 1.26 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.25 | 75% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Houston Dynamo +0.75 | 72% | 67% | @ 1.43 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1 | 70% | 80% | 1.20 |
| Houston Dynamo +0.5 | 68% | 60% | @ 1.58 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.75 | 64% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Houston Dynamo +0.25 | 61% | 55% | @ 1.75 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 | 59% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Houston Dynamo 0 | 54% | 46% | @ 2.08 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.25 | 52% | 61% | 1.55 |
| Houston Dynamo -0.25 | 48% | 39% | @ 2.46 |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0 | 46% | 54% | 1.77 |
| Houston Dynamo -0.5 | 41% | 34% | @ 2.81 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.25 | 39% | 45% | 2.11 |
| Houston Dynamo -0.75 | 36% | 28% | @ 3.46 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 | 32% | 40% | 2.41 |
| Houston Dynamo -1 | 30% | 20% | @ 4.68 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.75 | 28% | 33% | 2.89 |
| Houston Dynamo -1.25 | 25% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1 | 23% | 25% | 3.85 |
| Houston Dynamo -1.5 | 19% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.25 | 18% | 22% | 4.30 |
| Houston Dynamo -1.75 | 16% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.5 | 14% | 20% | 4.65 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.75 | 11% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
Our model's main pick is Houston Dynamo with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
Our model makes a Houston Dynamo win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.50 for Houston Dynamo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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