⚽ Ligue 1

Lille vs Estac Troyes Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lille vs Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lille face Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Lille have 3 wins from their last 5, while Estac Troyes have 1 win from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lille win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.7-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lille vs Estac Troyes with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.73 – 1.11 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	6.5%	3.6%	1.3%	0.4%
1	10.1%	11.2%	6.2%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.7%	9.7%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%
3	5.0%	5.6%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.2%	2.4%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lille winDrawEstac Troyes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lille vs Estac Troyes is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates a Lille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 2.12 (+16.7% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 2.12, 55% model probability, +16.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Lille 55%Draw 24%Estac Troyes 20%

55%24%20%

55%

Lille Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+16.7%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

Lille

Lille come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Angers. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Real Betis.

LLille 2-3 Real BetisUEFA Champions League
WToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
DLille 2-2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
WAngers 0-2 LilleLigue 1
DEverton 1-1 LilleFriendlies Clubs

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Lorient. Their only defeat in that run was 2-6 at home to Strasbourg.

LEstac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgLigue 1
WLorient 1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
DEstac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCLigue 1
DEstac Troyes 1-1 PanetolikosFriendlies Clubs
DAuxerre 1-1 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lille

H. IgamaneKnee Injury

Estac Troyes

I. BouraInjury
P. GozziMuscle Injury
Y. TitiInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lille at 55% to win and Estac Troyes at 20%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Lille win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Estac Troyes Win	20%	@ 8.50	+71.7%
Draw	24%	@ 4.75	+16.2%
Lille Win	55%	@ 1.34	-25.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Estac Troyes or Draw at 3.10 (44% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Estac Troyes or Draw	44%	@ 3.10	+37.1%
Lille or Draw	79%	@ 1.06	-15.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	54%	@ 1.79	-3.3%
Over 3.5	32%	@ 3.05	-3.3%
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.24	-3.8%
Under 3.5	68%	@ 1.36	-7.1%
Under 2.5	46%	@ 1.98	-8.9%
Under 1.5	22%	@ 3.95	-11.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 2.12	+16.7%
BTTS No	45%	@ 1.65	-25.8%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lille vs Estac Troyes?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with 68% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 2.12 (+16.7% value).

Who is the favourite for Lille vs Estac Troyes?

Our model makes a Lille win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline for Lille vs Estac Troyes.

What is the predicted score for Lille vs Estac Troyes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.73 for Lille and 1.11 for Estac Troyes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lille and Estac Troyes play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.