⚽ Bundesliga
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV finished 5-0. RB Leipzig won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.70, did not land.
RB Leipzig face Hamburger SV in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: RB Leipzig have 2 wins from their last 5, while Hamburger SV have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, RB Leipzig won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a RB Leipzig win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 2.2-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Hamburger SV with a +2 start at odds 1.53, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a RB Leipzig win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV. Wins shown from RB Leipzig’s perspective: RB Leipzig 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | RB Leipzig | 5 – 0 | Hamburger SV | W |
| 2026-03-01 | Hamburger SV | 1 – 2 | RB Leipzig | W |
| 2025-10-18 | RB Leipzig | 2 – 1 | Hamburger SV | W |
📈 Recent form
RB Leipzig come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Hamburger SV. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Bayer Leverkusen.
- LBayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- WRB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- LComo 4-1 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League
- LWerder Bremen 3-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- WRB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
Hamburger SV come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Verl. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at RB Leipzig.
- WHamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- LRB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- LHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- LBorussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- WVerl 0-3 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. BaumgartnerThigh Injury
- R. ReitzMuscle Injury
- K. AmoakoIllness
- S. BornauwMuscle Injury
- A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices RB Leipzig at 62% to win and Hamburger SV at 15%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a RB Leipzig win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig Win | 62% | 69% | @ 1.35 |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | @ 5.20 |
| Hamburger SV Win | 15% | 13% | @ 7.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is RB Leipzig or Draw at 1.08 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig or Draw | 84% | 87% | @ 1.08 |
| Hamburger SV or Draw | 37% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 66% | @ 1.43 |
| Under 3.5 | 60% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 45% | @ 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 17% | 15% | @ 6.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 56% | @ 1.66 |
| BTTS No | 44% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when RB Leipzig or Hamburger SV is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0.5 | 84% | 86% | 1.11 |
| RB Leipzig +0.25 | 79% | 86% | 1.10 |
| RB Leipzig 0 | 74% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Hamburger SV +2 | 71% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| RB Leipzig -0.25 | 68% | 76% | 1.26 |
| Hamburger SV +1.75 | 67% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| RB Leipzig -0.5 | 63% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Hamburger SV +1.5 | 62% | 50% | @ 1.94 |
| RB Leipzig -0.75 | 57% | 67% | 1.41 |
| Hamburger SV +1.25 | 56% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| RB Leipzig -1 | 51% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Hamburger SV +1 | 49% | 37% | @ 2.58 |
| RB Leipzig -1.25 | 44% | 56% | 1.71 |
| Hamburger SV +0.75 | 43% | 33% | @ 2.92 |
| RB Leipzig -1.5 | 38% | 50% | 1.93 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 37% | 30% | @ 3.23 |
| RB Leipzig -1.75 | 33% | 45% | 2.13 |
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 32% | 24% | @ 3.94 |
| RB Leipzig -2 | 29% | 38% | 2.50 |
| Hamburger SV 0 | 26% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Hamburger SV -0.25 | 21% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Hamburger SV -0.5 | 16% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
Our model's main pick is Hamburger SV with a +2 start at odds 1.53, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 62%.
Who is the favourite for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
Our model makes a RB Leipzig win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV.
What is the predicted score for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.23 for RB Leipzig and 0.98 for Hamburger SV. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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