⚽ Bundesliga

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

RB Leipzig face Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: RB Leipzig have 2 wins from their last 5, while Hamburger SV have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, RB Leipzig won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a RB Leipzig win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 2.2-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.70

61%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.16 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.3%	4.2%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
1	9.3%	9.2%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
2	10.0%	9.9%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	7.2%	7.1%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%
4	3.9%	3.8%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-0

RB Leipzig winDrawHamburger SV win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.70, the selection our model is most confident in at 61%. On the match result, the model rates a RB Leipzig win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.70, 61% model probability, +4.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

RB Leipzig 61%Draw 24%Hamburger SV 15%

61%24%15%

61%

RB Leipzig Win

61%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+4.3%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV. Wins shown from RB Leipzig’s perspective: RB Leipzig 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-01	Hamburger SV	1 – 2	RB Leipzig	W
2025-10-18	RB Leipzig	2 – 1	Hamburger SV	W

📈 Recent form

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 6-0 at Eintracht Trier. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Werder Bremen.

LWerder Bremen 3-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
WRB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
WEintracht Trier 0-6 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal
LBayern München 3-1 RB LeipzigFriendlies Clubs
LLeeds 2-0 RB LeipzigFriendlies Clubs

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Verl. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at home to FSV Mainz 05.

LHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
LBorussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
WVerl 0-3 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
WToulouse 1-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
DHamburger SV 2-2 LilleFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

RB Leipzig

C. BaumgartnerThigh Injury
R. ReitzMuscle Injury

Hamburger SV

A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury
S. BornauwNot in squad
A. S. LokongaBack Injury
M. MuheimMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices RB Leipzig at 61% to win and Hamburger SV at 15%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a RB Leipzig win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	24%	@ 5.20	+22.7%
Hamburger SV Win	15%	@ 7.50	+13.4%
RB Leipzig Win	61%	@ 1.35	-17.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Hamburger SV or Draw at 3.05 (38% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Hamburger SV or Draw	38%	@ 3.05	+15.0%
RB Leipzig or Draw	84%	@ 1.08	-9.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	18%	@ 6.10	+8.5%
Under 2.5	39%	@ 2.75	+7.4%
Under 3.5	61%	@ 1.70	+4.3%
Over 1.5	82%	@ 1.11	-8.7%
Over 2.5	61%	@ 1.43	-12.8%
Over 3.5	39%	@ 2.12	-18.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	45%	@ 2.12	-5.0%
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 1.66	-8.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.70, with 61% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?

Our model makes a RB Leipzig win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV.

What is the predicted score for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.16 for RB Leipzig and 0.99 for Hamburger SV. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.