⚽ Brazilian Série A

Flamengo vs Corinthians Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Flamengo vs Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 20:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Flamengo face Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 20:30 UTC. Recent form: Flamengo have 4 wins from their last 5, while Corinthians have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Flamengo won 2, Corinthians won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.6-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Flamengo vs Corinthians with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.32

75%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.62 – 0.92 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	7.3%	3.3%	1.0%	0.2%
1	12.8%	11.8%	5.4%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.3%	9.5%	4.4%	1.3%	0.3%
3	5.6%	5.1%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.3%	2.1%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Flamengo winDrawCorinthians win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Corinthians is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.32, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points no (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.88 (+0.3% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.88, 53% model probability, +0.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Flamengo 55%Draw 27%Corinthians 17%

55%27%17%

55%

Flamengo Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

+0.3%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Flamengo and Corinthians. Wins shown from Flamengo’s perspective: Flamengo 2 · 1 drawn · Corinthians 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-09-01	Corinthians	2 – 1	Flamengo	L
2024-05-11	Flamengo	2 – 0	Corinthians	W
2023-10-08	Corinthians	1 – 1	Flamengo	D
2023-05-21	Flamengo	1 – 0	Corinthians	W

📈 Recent form

Flamengo

Flamengo come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Botafogo. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Cruzeiro.

WRemo 0-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WFlamengo 2-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
WFlamengo 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LCruzeiro 2-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WFlamengo 2-1 CruzeiroCONMEBOL Libertadores

Corinthians

Corinthians come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Rosario Central. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Chapecoense-sc.

LCorinthians 1-2 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
LCorinthians 0-1 SantosBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
WCorinthians 1-0 Rosario CentralCONMEBOL Libertadores
LCorinthians 1-2 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Flamengo

Alex SandroCalf Injury
EvertonNot in squad
Evertton AraujoThigh Injury
LorranNot in squad
G. PlataNot in squad

Corinthians

AndreMuscle Injury
Andre RamalhoNot in squad
KaykeKnee Injury
Z. LabyadKnee Injury
VitinhoKnee Injury
Yuri AlbertoMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Flamengo at 55% to win and Corinthians at 17%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Corinthians Win	17%	@ 7.00	+21.5%
Draw	27%	@ 4.20	+14.7%
Flamengo Win	55%	@ 1.46	-19.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Corinthians or Draw at 2.63 (43% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Corinthians or Draw	43%	@ 2.63	+12.0%
Flamengo or Draw	80%	@ 1.09	-12.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	28%	@ 3.65	+1.9%
Under 2.5	53%	@ 1.88	+0.3%
Under 3.5	75%	@ 1.32	-1.1%
Over 1.5	72%	@ 1.27	-8.5%
Over 2.5	47%	@ 1.91	-10.9%
Over 3.5	25%	@ 3.30	-17.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	49%	@ 2.04	-0.2%
BTTS No	51%	@ 1.70	-13.2%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Corinthians?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.32, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.88 (+0.3% value).

Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Corinthians?

Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.9 scoreline for Flamengo vs Corinthians.

What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Corinthians?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.62 for Flamengo and 0.92 for Corinthians. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Flamengo and Corinthians play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 20:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.