Mon 14 Sep2-1Finished

⚽ Serie A

Como vs Parma Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Como vs Parma in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Como 2-1 Parma

Como vs Parma finished 2-1. Como won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.43, landed.

Como face Parma in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Como have 2 wins from their last 3, while Parma have no wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Como won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Como win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 1.7-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Como vs Parma with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.43

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.70 – 0.73 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	6.4%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
1	15.0%	10.9%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.7%	9.3%	3.4%	0.8%	0.2%
3	7.2%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
4	3.1%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Como winDrawParma win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Como vs Parma comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.43, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Como win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Como 61%Draw 27%Parma 12%

61%27%12%

61%

Como Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Como and Parma. Wins shown from Como’s perspective: Como 3 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-14	Como	2 – 1	Parma	W
2026-05-17	Como	1 – 0	Parma	W
2025-10-25	Parma	0 – 0	Como	D
2025-05-03	Parma	0 – 1	Como	W
2024-10-19	Como	1 – 1	Parma	D

📈 Recent form

Como

Como come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to RB Leipzig. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Frosinone.

LFrosinone 2-0 ComoSerie A
WComo 2-1 ParmaSerie A
WComo 4-1 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League
WGenoa 1-4 ComoSerie A
WNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A

Parma

Parma come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Genoa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Como.

WParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
LComo 2-1 ParmaSerie A
DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
LParma 0-2 CremoneseCoppa Italia
LJuventus 2-0 ParmaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Como

J. AddaiAchilles Tendon Injury

Parma

H. Nicolussi CavigliaGroin Injury
A. BernabeNot in squad
S. BritschgiNot in squad
O. DialloInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Como at 61% to win and Parma at 12%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Como win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Como Win	61%	75%	@ 1.25
Draw	27%	17%	@ 5.40
Parma Win	12%	8%	@ 11.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Como or Draw at 1.03 (85% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Como or Draw	85%	92%	@ 1.03
Parma or Draw	36%	25%	@ 3.70

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	77%	66%	@ 1.43
Over 1.5	70%	78%	@ 1.21
Under 2.5	56%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 2.5	44%	55%	@ 1.70
Under 1.5	30%	22%	@ 4.25
Over 3.5	23%	34%	@ 2.80

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	58%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS Yes	42%	41%	@ 2.30

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Como or Parma is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Como +0.25	80%	86%	1.10
Como 0	74%	86%	1.10
Parma +2	70%	56%	@ 1.71
Como -0.25	69%	–	1.17
Parma +1.75	66%	49%	@ 1.99
Como -0.5	64%	77%	1.23
Parma +1.5	61%	43%	@ 2.19
Como -0.75	58%	–	1.25
Parma +1.25	54%	37%	@ 2.60
Como -1	52%	73%	1.30
Parma +1	48%	27%	@ 3.57
Como -1.25	46%	63%	1.50
Como -1.5	40%	57%	1.69
Parma +0.5	36%	23%	@ 4.17
Como -1.75	34%	51%	1.89
Como -2	30%	44%	2.15
Parma 0	26%	14%	@ 7.00
Parma -0.25	20%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Como 78%Draw 15%Parma 6%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Como vs Parma?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.43, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Como vs Parma?

Our model makes a Como win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.7 scoreline for Como vs Parma.

What is the predicted score for Como vs Parma?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.70 for Como and 0.73 for Parma. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Como and Parma play?

Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.