Tue 15 Sep5-1Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

Ajax vs Willem II Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ajax vs Willem II in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Ajax 5-1 Willem II

Ajax vs Willem II finished 5-1. Ajax won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 2.30, did not land.

Ajax face Willem II in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Ajax have 2 wins from their last 4, while Willem II have no wins from their last 4. In their last 3 meetings, Ajax won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 77%, projecting a 2.4-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ajax vs Willem II with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Ajax -1.25 @ 1.27

60%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.36 – 0.83 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.1%	3.4%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
1	9.7%	8.1%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%
2	11.5%	9.5%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%
3	9.0%	7.5%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
4	5.3%	4.4%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Ajax winDrawWillem II win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Ajax vs Willem II comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Ajax to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.27, with a 60% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 77%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Ajax 77%Draw 15%Willem II 8%

77%15%

77%

Ajax Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Ajax and Willem II. Wins shown from Ajax’s perspective: Ajax 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-15	Ajax	5 – 1	Willem II	W
2025-04-13	Willem II	1 – 2	Ajax	W
2024-10-27	Ajax	1 – 0	Willem II	W

📈 Recent form

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie

Willem II

Willem II come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Fortuna Sittard.

LWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
LWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Ajax

S. AdingraFoot Injury
D. BlindInjury
A. BouwmanInjury

Willem II

A. CulumFoot Injury
T. Didillon HodlHamstring Injury
J. HoogmaNot in squad
A. LachkarGroin Injury
J. SchuurmanKnock
A. ZarroukSurgery
V. van CrooijNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Ajax at 77% to win and Willem II at 8%, with the draw at 15%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax Win	77%	80%	@ 1.16
Draw	15%	12%	@ 7.50
Willem II Win	8%	7%	@ 13.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ajax or Draw at 1.02 (92% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax or Draw	92%	93%	@ 1.02
Willem II or Draw	23%	20%	@ 4.90

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	90%	@ 1.04
Over 2.5	62%	77%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	60%	41%	@ 2.30
Over 3.5	40%	59%	@ 1.58
Under 2.5	38%	23%	@ 4.10
Under 1.5	17%	10%	@ 9.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	57%	@ 1.63
BTTS No	49%	43%	@ 2.14

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ajax or Willem II is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax -0.25	80%	86%	1.10
Ajax -0.5	77%	84%	1.13
Ajax -0.75	71%	83%	1.14
Ajax -1	66%	82%	1.16
Ajax -1.25	60%	74%	1.27
Willem II +2	57%	36%	@ 2.60
Ajax -1.5	54%	71%	1.34
Willem II +1.75	51%	32%	@ 2.93
Ajax -1.75	49%	68%	1.40
Willem II +1.5	46%	29%	@ 3.21
Ajax -2	43%	64%	1.49
Willem II +1.25	40%	26%	@ 3.59
Willem II +1	34%	18%	@ 5.25
Willem II +0.75	29%	17%	@ 5.75
Willem II +0.5	23%	16%	@ 5.90
Willem II +0.25	20%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Ajax 84%Draw 10%Willem II 6%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ajax vs Willem II?

Our model's main pick is Ajax to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.27, with a 60% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Willem II?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 77%. It projects an expected 2.4-0.8 scoreline for Ajax vs Willem II.

What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Willem II?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.36 for Ajax and 0.83 for Willem II. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Ajax and Willem II play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.