⚽ Eredivisie

Ajax vs Willem II Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ajax vs Willem II in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Ajax face Willem II in the Eredivisie, kicking off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Ajax have 2 wins from their last 4, while Willem II have 0 wins from their last 4. In their last 2 meetings, Ajax won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 78%, projecting a 2.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ajax vs Willem II with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 2.30

56%Lower AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.51 – 0.86 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
1	8.6%	7.4%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
2	10.8%	9.3%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
3	9.1%	7.8%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
4	5.7%	4.9%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Ajax winDrawWillem II win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Ajax vs Willem II is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 2.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 56%. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 78%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 2.30, 56% model probability, +30.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Ajax 78%Draw 15%Willem II 8%

78%15%

78%

Ajax Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

+30.0%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Ajax and Willem II. Wins shown from Ajax’s perspective: Ajax 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-04-13	Willem II	1 – 2	Ajax	W
2024-10-27	Ajax	1 – 0	Willem II	W

📈 Recent form

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Telstar. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie
WAjax 5-3 FC SionUEFA Europa Conference
WFC Sion 2-4 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference
DAjax 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie

Willem II

Willem II come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 3, scoring 3 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Excelsior.

LWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
LWillem II 1-4 NEC NijmegenEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Ajax at 78% to win and Willem II at 8%, with the draw at 15%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	15%	@ 7.50	+9.4%
Willem II Win	8%	@ 13.00	-0.6%
Ajax Win	78%	@ 1.16	-9.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Willem II or Draw at 4.90 (23% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Willem II or Draw	23%	@ 4.90	+11.6%
Ajax or Draw	92%	@ 1.02	-6.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	15%	@ 9.50	+43.0%
Under 2.5	35%	@ 4.10	+41.8%
Under 3.5	56%	@ 2.30	+30.0%
Over 1.5	85%	@ 1.04	-11.7%
Over 2.5	65%	@ 1.22	-20.2%
Over 3.5	44%	@ 1.58	-31.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	47%	@ 2.14	+0.5%
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.63	-13.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ajax vs Willem II?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 2.30, with 56% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Willem II?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 78%. It projects an expected 2.5-0.9 scoreline for Ajax vs Willem II.

What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Willem II?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.51 for Ajax and 0.86 for Willem II. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Ajax and Willem II play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.