⚽ La Liga

Alaves vs Valencia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alaves vs Valencia in the La Liga. Kick-off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Alaves face Valencia in the La Liga, kicking off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Alaves have 3 wins from their last 4, while Valencia have 0 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Alaves won 2, Valencia won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alaves win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alaves vs Valencia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.38

70%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.39 – 1.07 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.5%	9.1%	4.9%	1.7%	0.5%
1	11.9%	12.7%	6.8%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.3%	8.8%	4.7%	1.7%	0.5%
3	3.8%	4.1%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.3%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Alaves winDrawValencia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alaves vs Valencia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 70%. On the match result, the model rates an Alaves win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (51%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.38, 70% model probability, -2.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Alaves 40%Draw 30%Valencia 30%

40%30%30%

40%

Alaves Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

-2.8%

Best value: Over 1.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Alaves and Valencia. Wins shown from Alaves’s perspective: Alaves 2 · 2 drawn · Valencia 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-08	Valencia	3 – 2	Alaves	L
2025-10-20	Alaves	0 – 0	Valencia	D
2025-05-14	Alaves	1 – 0	Valencia	W
2024-12-22	Valencia	2 – 2	Alaves	D
2024-05-05	Valencia	0 – 1	Alaves	W

📈 Recent form

Alaves

Alaves come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Osasuna. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WAlaves 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WAlaves 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
DRayo Vallecano 1-1 AlavesLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 GetafeLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 CastellónFriendlies Clubs

Valencia

Valencia come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at home to Barcelona.

LValencia 0-5 BarcelonaLa Liga
LDeportivo La Coruna 3-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LValencia 0-1 Real BetisLa Liga
DValencia 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
LValencia 1-2 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alaves at 40% to win and Valencia at 30%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an Alaves win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Valencia Win	30%	@ 3.45	+2.8%
Draw	30%	@ 3.05	-7.8%
Alaves Win	40%	@ 2.23	-10.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Valencia or Draw at 1.57 (58% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Valencia or Draw	58%	@ 1.57	-8.9%
Alaves or Draw	68%	@ 1.26	-14.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	23%	@ 4.25	-0.6%
Over 1.5	70%	@ 1.38	-2.8%
Over 2.5	45%	@ 2.18	-2.8%
Under 3.5	77%	@ 1.20	-8.1%
Under 2.5	55%	@ 1.58	-12.4%
Under 1.5	30%	@ 2.90	-14.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	49%	@ 1.89	-7.2%
BTTS No	51%	@ 1.78	-9.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alaves vs Valencia?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 70% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Valencia?

Our model makes an Alaves win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Alaves vs Valencia.

What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Valencia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.39 for Alaves and 1.07 for Valencia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alaves and Valencia play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.