Tue 15 Sep0-4Finished

⚽ Premiership

Motherwell vs Aberdeen Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Motherwell vs Aberdeen in the Premiership. Kick-off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Motherwell 0-4 Aberdeen

Motherwell vs Aberdeen finished 0-4. Aberdeen won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Motherwell or Draw at 1.28, did not land.

Motherwell face Aberdeen in the Premiership, kicking off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Motherwell have 2 wins from their last 5, while Aberdeen have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Motherwell win the most likely result at 57%, projecting a 1.8-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Motherwell vs Aberdeen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Motherwell or Draw @ 1.27

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.75 – 0.90 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	6.4%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%
1	12.4%	11.1%	5.0%	1.5%	0.3%
2	10.8%	9.7%	4.4%	1.3%	0.3%
3	6.3%	5.7%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.8%	2.5%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Motherwell winDrawAberdeen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Motherwell vs Aberdeen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Motherwell or Draw at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Motherwell win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 57%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Motherwell 57%Draw 23%Aberdeen 20%

57%23%20%

57%

Motherwell Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Motherwell

Motherwell come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Dundee Utd. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Dundee.

LDundee 2-1 MotherwellPremiership
LMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership
LRangers 1-0 MotherwellPremiership
WMotherwell 3-0 Dundee UtdPremiership
DSt Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership

Aberdeen

Aberdeen come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Motherwell. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Celtic.

DHibernian 1-1 AberdeenPremiership
WMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership
DKilmarnock 1-1 AberdeenLeague Cup
DAberdeen 0-0 KilmarnockPremiership
LCeltic 3-0 AberdeenPremiership

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Motherwell at 57% to win and Aberdeen at 20%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Motherwell win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Motherwell Win	57%	48%	@ 1.93
Draw	23%	27%	@ 3.45
Aberdeen Win	20%	26%	@ 3.55

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Motherwell or Draw at 1.27 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Motherwell or Draw	80%	74%	@ 1.27
Aberdeen or Draw	43%	52%	@ 1.81

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	76%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	72%	68%	@ 1.38
Under 2.5	51%	46%	@ 2.02
Over 2.5	49%	54%	@ 1.74
Over 3.5	28%	32%	@ 2.88
Under 1.5	26%	24%	@ 3.95

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	43%	@ 2.14
BTTS Yes	48%	57%	@ 1.61

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Motherwell or Aberdeen is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Motherwell +1.25	90%	86%	1.10
Motherwell +1	87%	85%	1.12
Motherwell +0.75	84%	82%	1.16
Motherwell +0.5	80%	77%	1.25
Aberdeen +2	76%	83%	1.15
Motherwell +0.25	74%	73%	1.30
Aberdeen +1.75	72%	74%	1.27
Motherwell 0	69%	69%	1.38
Aberdeen +1.5	68%	70%	1.35
Motherwell -0.25	63%	60%	1.59
Aberdeen +1.25	61%	66%	1.43
Motherwell -0.5	57%	53%	@ 1.83
Aberdeen +1	55%	61%	1.55
Motherwell -0.75	51%	46%	@ 2.06
Aberdeen +0.75	49%	54%	1.78
Motherwell -1	45%	39%	@ 2.44
Aberdeen +0.5	43%	47%	2.04
Motherwell -1.25	39%	34%	@ 2.81
Aberdeen +0.25	37%	40%	2.40
Motherwell -1.5	32%	30%	@ 3.17
Aberdeen 0	31%	31%	3.11
Motherwell -1.75	28%	26%	@ 3.71
Aberdeen -0.25	26%	27%	3.58
Motherwell -2	24%	17%	@ 5.50
Aberdeen -0.5	20%	23%	4.05
Aberdeen -0.75	16%	18%	5.25
Aberdeen -1	13%	15%	6.40
Aberdeen -1.25	10%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Motherwell 52%Draw 25%Aberdeen 23%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Our model's main pick is Motherwell or Draw at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Our model makes a Motherwell win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 1.8-0.9 scoreline for Motherwell vs Aberdeen.

What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.75 for Motherwell and 0.90 for Aberdeen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Motherwell and Aberdeen play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.