⚽ La Liga

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna in the La Liga. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

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Atletico Madrid face Osasuna in the La Liga, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Atletico Madrid have 2 wins from their last 4, while Osasuna have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 3, Osasuna won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atletico Madrid win the most likely result at 59%, projecting a 1.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.90 – 0.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	5.5%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%
1	10.7%	10.5%	5.1%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.1%	9.9%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.4%	6.3%	3.1%	1.0%	0.2%
4	3.0%	3.0%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Atletico Madrid winDrawOsasuna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates an Atletico Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 59%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.44, 67% model probability, -2.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Atletico Madrid 59%Draw 25%Osasuna 16%

59%25%16%

59%

Atletico Madrid Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

-2.9%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna. Wins shown from Atletico Madrid’s perspective: Atletico Madrid 3 · Osasuna 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-12	Osasuna	1 – 2	Atletico Madrid	W
2025-10-18	Atletico Madrid	1 – 0	Osasuna	W
2025-05-15	Osasuna	2 – 0	Atletico Madrid	L
2025-01-12	Atletico Madrid	1 – 0	Osasuna	W
2024-05-19	Atletico Madrid	1 – 4	Osasuna	L

📈 Recent form

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Sevilla. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Liverpool.

LLiverpool 2-1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
LAthletic Club 3-0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
WSevilla 1-3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
DAtletico Madrid 2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
WAtletico Madrid 2-0 MalagaLa Liga

Osasuna

Osasuna come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Getafe. Their most recent defeat was 2-5 at Alaves.

LAlaves 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WOsasuna 1-0 GetafeLa Liga
DOsasuna 0-0 LevanteLa Liga
WCelta Vigo 1-2 OsasunaLa Liga
LOsasuna 0-2 Al AinFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atletico Madrid at 59% to win and Osasuna at 16%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an Atletico Madrid win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Osasuna Win	16%	@ 8.00	+25.3%
Draw	25%	@ 4.33	+8.6%
Atletico Madrid Win	59%	@ 1.40	-17.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Osasuna or Draw at 2.62 (39% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Osasuna or Draw	39%	@ 2.62	+2.9%
Atletico Madrid or Draw	83%	@ 1.10	-9.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	67%	@ 1.44	-2.9%
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.22	-4.6%
Over 2.5	55%	@ 1.73	-5.0%
Under 2.5	45%	@ 2.10	-5.4%
Under 1.5	22%	@ 4.33	-5.7%
Over 3.5	33%	@ 2.75	-10.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.80	-4.7%
BTTS No	47%	@ 1.95	-8.3%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with 67% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

Our model makes an Atletico Madrid win the most likely result at 59%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna.

What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.90 for Atletico Madrid and 0.98 for Osasuna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atletico Madrid and Osasuna play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.