⚽ UEFA Europa League

AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AC Milan vs Benfica in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AC Milan face Benfica in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AC Milan vs Benfica with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Benfica or Draw @ 1.77

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	9.7%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
1	12.2%	12.9%	6.8%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.1%	8.6%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.6%	3.8%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

AC Milan winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Benfica is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Benfica or Draw at odds 1.77, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (52%).

Best value

Benfica or Draw at odds 1.77, 74% model probability, +31.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

AC Milan 28%Draw 21%Benfica 51%

28%21%51%

51%

Benfica Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

+31.3%

Best value: Benfica or Draw

📈 Recent form

AC Milan

AC Milan come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Venezia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Chelsea.

DJuventus 1-1 AC MilanSerie A
WAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A
WTorino 1-2 AC MilanSerie A
WManchester United 2-4 AC MilanFriendlies Clubs
LChelsea 3-0 AC MilanFriendlies Clubs

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMaritimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WBenfica 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
WAarhus 1-3 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 AarhusUEFA Europa League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AC Milan at 28% to win and Benfica at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Benfica Win	51%	@ 3.35	+70.9%
Draw	21%	@ 3.75	-20.9%
AC Milan Win	28%	@ 2.02	-43.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.77 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Benfica or Draw	74%	@ 1.77	+31.3%
AC Milan or Draw	51%	@ 1.30	-33.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	31%	@ 4.50	+39.8%
Under 2.5	57%	@ 2.20	+25.9%
Under 3.5	78%	@ 1.47	+14.8%
Over 1.5	69%	@ 1.19	-18.0%
Over 2.5	43%	@ 1.65	-29.4%
Over 3.5	22%	@ 2.65	-41.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	52%	@ 2.32	+20.0%
BTTS Yes	48%	@ 1.55	-25.2%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AC Milan vs Benfica?

Our main pick is Benfica or Draw at odds 1.77, with 74% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for AC Milan vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for AC Milan and 1.06 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AC Milan and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.