⚽ UEFA Europa League
Anderlecht vs Lyon Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Anderlecht vs Lyon in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon
Anderlecht vs Lyon finished 1-2. Lyon won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Lyon or Draw at 1.29, landed.
Anderlecht face Lyon in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.3-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Anderlecht vs Lyon with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Anderlecht vs Lyon comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Anderlecht with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Anderlecht come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Zulte Waregem. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Lyon.
- WAnderlecht 3-0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- LAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
- WKV Mechelen 0-1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- DAnderlecht 0-0 GenkJupiler Pro League
- WAnderlecht 1-0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
Lyon come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes.
- WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
- WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
- DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
- WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
- DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- G. BianconeNot in squad
- I. CamaraFoot Injury
- L. HeyBroken Leg
- I. KoutsoupiasOff the roster
- K. SardellaThigh Injury
- Abner ViniciusNot in squad
- A. HamdaniNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Anderlecht at 31% to win and Lyon at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon Win | 42% | 48% | @ 1.97 |
| Anderlecht Win | 31% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lyon or Draw at 1.29 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon or Draw | 68% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Anderlecht or Draw | 58% | 52% | @ 1.82 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 20% | @ 4.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 61% | @ 1.52 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Anderlecht or Lyon is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon +1.5 | 87% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Anderlecht +2 | 86% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Anderlecht +1.75 | 83% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Lyon +1.25 | 82% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Anderlecht +1.5 | 80% | – | @ 1.26 |
| Lyon +1 | 78% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Anderlecht +1.25 | 74% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Lyon +0.75 | 73% | 74% | 1.27 |
| Anderlecht +1 | 69% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Lyon +0.5 | 68% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Anderlecht +0.75 | 63% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Lyon +0.25 | 62% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Anderlecht +0.5 | 58% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Lyon 0 | 55% | 57% | 1.68 |
| Anderlecht +0.25 | 51% | 51% | 1.89 |
| Lyon -0.25 | 49% | 49% | 1.99 |
| Anderlecht 0 | 45% | 43% | 2.21 |
| Lyon -0.5 | 42% | 42% | 2.25 |
| Anderlecht -0.25 | 38% | 37% | 2.58 |
| Lyon -0.75 | 37% | 36% | 2.63 |
| Anderlecht -0.5 | 32% | 32% | 2.94 |
| Lyon -1 | 31% | 28% | @ 3.41 |
| Anderlecht -0.75 | 27% | 26% | 3.67 |
| Lyon -1.25 | 26% | 25% | 3.73 |
| Anderlecht -1 | 22% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Anderlecht -1.25 | 18% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Lyon -1.75 | 17% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Lyon -2 | 14% | 14% | 6.60 |
| Anderlecht -1.5 | 13% | 16% | 5.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Anderlecht vs Lyon?
Our model's main pick is Anderlecht with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.
Who is the favourite for Anderlecht vs Lyon?
Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.8 scoreline for Anderlecht vs Lyon.
What is the predicted score for Anderlecht vs Lyon?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.29 for Anderlecht and 1.83 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Anderlecht and Lyon play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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