⚽ UEFA Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Bayer Leverkusen face Celje in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 57%, projecting a 2.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.26

75%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.90 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.9%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
1	5.6%	5.9%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
2	8.2%	8.5%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%
3	7.9%	8.2%	4.3%	1.5%	0.4%
4	5.7%	6.0%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Bayer Leverkusen winDrawCelje win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 57%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 1.68 (+2.8% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.68, 61% model probability, +2.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Bayer Leverkusen 57%Draw 25%Celje 18%

57%25%18%

57%

Bayer Leverkusen Win

75%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

+2.8%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Union Berlin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at SV Elversberg.

WBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
LSV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WSV Wehen 0-4 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal
WNewcastle 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs
LNottingham Forest 2-1 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs

Celje

Celje come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Nafta. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Koper.

LCelje 0-1 Koper1. SNL
LBrinje-Grosuplje 4-1 Celje1. SNL
DCelje 1-1 Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League
DSlovan Bratislava 1-1 CeljeUEFA Champions League
WNafta 1-3 Celje1. SNL

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bayer Leverkusen at 57% to win and Celje at 18%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Celje Win	18%	@ 13.00	+128.1%
Draw	25%	@ 7.50	+90.4%
Bayer Leverkusen Win	57%	@ 1.19	-32.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Celje or Draw at 4.60 (42% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Celje or Draw	42%	@ 4.60	+91.8%
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	81%	@ 1.03	-16.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	45%	@ 2.15	-4.1%
Over 1.5	90%	@ 1.06	-4.3%
Over 2.5	75%	@ 1.26	-5.2%
Under 2.5	25%	@ 3.75	-7.0%
Over 3.5	55%	@ 1.68	-7.0%
Under 1.5	10%	@ 8.50	-17.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 1.68	+2.8%
BTTS No	39%	@ 2.08	-19.3%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.26, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 1.68 (+2.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?

Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 2.9-1.0 scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje.

What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.90 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.04 for Celje. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bayer Leverkusen and Celje play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.