⚽ UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz vs Rennes Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sturm Graz vs Rennes in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Sturm Graz 0-0 Rennes
Sturm Graz vs Rennes finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.45, landed.
Sturm Graz face Rennes in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rennes win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 0.9-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sturm Graz vs Rennes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Sturm Graz vs Rennes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sturm Graz with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Rennes win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points no (55%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Sturm Graz come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Voitsberg. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Red Bull Salzburg.
- LRed Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- DSturm Graz 0-0 RennesUEFA Europa League
- WSturm Graz 2-1 Lask LinzBundesliga
- WVoitsberg 1-4 Sturm GrazCup
- LRapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
Rennes come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Marseille. Their only defeat in that run was 0-4 at Lyon.
- LLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
- DSturm Graz 0-0 RennesUEFA Europa League
- WRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
- WAngers 1-2 RennesLigue 1
- WRennes 3-2 Le MansLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. GeyrhoferOff the roster
- S. JattaNot in squad
- A. KayomboOff the roster
- E. SogloMuscle Injury
- S. WlodarczykOff the roster
No absentees reported.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sturm Graz at 27% to win and Rennes at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Rennes win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes Win | 47% | 46% | @ 2.04 |
| Sturm Graz Win | 27% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rennes or Draw at 1.30 (73% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes or Draw | 73% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Sturm Graz or Draw | 53% | 54% | @ 1.76 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74% | 65% | @ 1.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 56% | @ 1.66 |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | 22% | @ 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 55% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 45% | 59% | @ 1.56 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sturm Graz or Rennes is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes +1.5 | 90% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Rennes +1.25 | 85% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Sturm Graz +2 | 83% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Rennes +1 | 81% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Sturm Graz +1.75 | 80% | 76% | 1.23 |
| Rennes +0.75 | 77% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Sturm Graz +1.5 | 76% | 72% | @ 1.32 |
| Rennes +0.5 | 73% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Sturm Graz +1.25 | 70% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Rennes +0.25 | 66% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Sturm Graz +1 | 64% | 64% | 1.49 |
| Rennes 0 | 60% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Sturm Graz +0.75 | 58% | 56% | 1.69 |
| Rennes -0.25 | 54% | 56% | 1.69 |
| Sturm Graz +0.5 | 53% | 50% | @ 1.92 |
| Rennes -0.5 | 47% | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sturm Graz +0.25 | 46% | 44% | @ 2.19 |
| Rennes -0.75 | 42% | 44% | 2.18 |
| Sturm Graz 0 | 40% | 35% | @ 2.74 |
| Rennes -1 | 36% | 36% | 2.67 |
| Sturm Graz -0.25 | 34% | 30% | @ 3.16 |
| Rennes -1.25 | 30% | 31% | 3.05 |
| Sturm Graz -0.5 | 27% | 27% | 3.54 |
| Rennes -1.5 | 24% | 28% | 3.39 |
| Sturm Graz -0.75 | 23% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| Rennes -1.75 | 20% | 24% | 4.00 |
| Sturm Graz -1 | 19% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Rennes -2 | 17% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Sturm Graz -1.25 | 15% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Sturm Graz -1.5 | 10% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Rennes?
Our model's main pick is Sturm Graz with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Rennes?
Our model makes a Rennes win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.7 scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rennes.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Rennes?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.86 for Sturm Graz and 1.71 for Rennes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sturm Graz and Rennes play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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