⚽ UEFA Europa League

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sunderland face AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.65

66%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.13 – 1.28 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	4.2%	2.7%	1.2%	0.4%
1	7.0%	9.0%	5.8%	2.5%	0.8%
2	7.5%	9.6%	6.1%	2.6%	0.8%
3	5.3%	6.8%	4.4%	1.9%	0.6%
4	2.8%	3.6%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Sunderland winDrawAZ Alkmaar win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, the selection our model is most confident in at 66%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

66%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Sunderland

Sunderland come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Hull City. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Ipswich.

WSunderland 1-0 Hull CityLeague Cup
DBrentford 1-1 SunderlandPremier League
WSunderland 1-0 FulhamPremier League
LIpswich 2-1 SunderlandPremier League
WSunderland 2-1 RennesFriendlies Clubs

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to GO Ahead Eagles. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WUtrecht 1-4 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 2-0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sunderland or Draw at 1.18 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sunderland or Draw	79%	@ 1.18	n/a
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	45%	@ 2.14	n/a

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	85%	@ 1.19	n/a
Under 1.5	15%	@ 4.60	n/a
Over 2.5	66%	@ 1.65	n/a
Under 2.5	34%	@ 2.23	n/a
Over 3.5	44%	@ 2.63	n/a
Under 3.5	56%	@ 1.48	n/a

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	64%	@ 1.63	n/a
BTTS No	36%	@ 2.16	n/a

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, with 66% model confidence.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.13 for Sunderland and 1.28 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.