⚽ UEFA Europa League
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar finished 1-0. Sunderland won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.65, did not land.
Sunderland face AZ Alkmaar in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 2.1-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is AZ Alkmaar with a +2 start at odds 1.25, with a 87% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (64%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Sunderland come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to AZ Alkmaar. Their most recent defeat was 3-5 at Manchester City.
- LManchester City 5-3 SunderlandPremier League
- WSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
- LSunderland 0-2 ArsenalPremier League
- WSunderland 1-0 Hull CityLeague Cup
- DBrentford 1-1 SunderlandPremier League
AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sunderland.
- WAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
- LSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
- DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. AnguloOff the roster
- A. BrowneOff the roster
- H. DiarraHamstring Injury
- M. EllborgOff the roster
- R. MundleKnee Injury
- J. Ta BiOff the roster
- C. TalbiOff the roster
- D. KasiusGroin Injury
- S. ResinkKnee Injury
- J. ZoetOff the roster
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sunderland at 35% to win and AZ Alkmaar at 28%, with the draw at 37%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 37% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Sunderland Win | 35% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 28% | 20% | @ 4.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sunderland or Draw at 1.18 (66% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland or Draw | 66% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| AZ Alkmaar or Draw | 60% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 79% | @ 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 36% | @ 2.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 43% | @ 2.23 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 21% | @ 4.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 57% | @ 1.63 |
| BTTS No | 36% | 43% | @ 2.16 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sunderland or AZ Alkmaar is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar +2 | 87% | – | @ 1.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1.75 | 84% | 68% | @ 1.39 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1.5 | 81% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1.25 | 76% | 57% | @ 1.68 |
| Sunderland +0.75 | 71% | 85% | 1.12 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1 | 71% | 52% | @ 1.88 |
| Sunderland +0.5 | 66% | 83% | 1.15 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.75 | 65% | 43% | @ 2.19 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.5 | 60% | 39% | @ 2.46 |
| Sunderland +0.25 | 60% | 79% | 1.20 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.25 | 53% | 31% | @ 3.03 |
| Sunderland 0 | 53% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Sunderland -0.25 | 47% | 69% | 1.39 |
| AZ Alkmaar 0 | 47% | 22% | @ 4.29 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.25 | 40% | 21% | @ 4.58 |
| Sunderland -0.5 | 40% | 61% | 1.54 |
| Sunderland -0.75 | 35% | 57% | 1.69 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.5 | 34% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Sunderland -1 | 29% | 48% | 2.00 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.75 | 29% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Sunderland -1.25 | 24% | 43% | 2.20 |
| Sunderland -1.5 | 19% | 38% | 2.50 |
| Sunderland -1.75 | 16% | 32% | 3.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model's main pick is AZ Alkmaar with a +2 start at odds 1.25, with a 87% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 80%.
Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 2.1-1.3 scoreline for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.13 for Sunderland and 1.28 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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