Wed 16 Sep3-2Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Botafogo vs Grêmio Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Botafogo vs Grêmio in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Botafogo 3-2 Grêmio

Botafogo vs Grêmio finished 3-2. Botafogo won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Botafogo with a +0.25 start at 1.26, landed.

Botafogo face Grêmio in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Botafogo have no wins from their last 5, while Grêmio have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Botafogo won 3, Grêmio won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 1.7-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Botafogo vs Grêmio with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Botafogo +0.25 @ 1.26

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.67 – 0.96 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.2%	6.9%	3.3%	1.1%	0.3%
1	12.0%	11.6%	5.5%	1.8%	0.4%
2	10.1%	9.6%	4.6%	1.5%	0.4%
3	5.6%	5.4%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.3%	2.2%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Botafogo winDrawGrêmio win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Botafogo with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Botafogo 56%Draw 29%Grêmio 15%

56%29%15%

56%

Botafogo Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Botafogo and Grêmio. Wins shown from Botafogo’s perspective: Botafogo 3 · 1 drawn · Grêmio 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-16	Botafogo	3 – 2	Grêmio	W
2024-09-29	Botafogo	0 – 0	Grêmio	D
2024-06-16	Grêmio	1 – 2	Botafogo	W
2023-11-09	Botafogo	3 – 4	Grêmio	L
2023-07-09	Grêmio	0 – 2	Botafogo	W

📈 Recent form

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Mirassol.

LMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 1-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Botafogo.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
LVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
WGrêmio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Botafogo

J. BarreraInjury
K. BarriaSuspended (cards)
N. FerraresiSuspended (cards)
Kaio PantaleaoKnee Injury
Matheus MartinsNot in squad

Grêmio

F. AmuzuNot in squad
DodiKnee Injury
MarlonInjury
Pedro GabrielSuspended (cards)

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Botafogo at 56% to win and Grêmio at 15%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo Win	56%	54%	@ 1.73
Draw	29%	25%	@ 3.80
Grêmio Win	15%	21%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.19 (82% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo or Draw	82%	79%	@ 1.19
Grêmio or Draw	41%	46%	@ 2.05

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	76%	@ 1.23
Under 3.5	73%	69%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	51%	47%	@ 1.98
Over 2.5	49%	53%	@ 1.79
Over 3.5	27%	31%	@ 3.05
Under 1.5	26%	24%	@ 3.95

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	54%	@ 1.71
BTTS No	50%	46%	@ 2.02

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Botafogo or Grêmio is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo +0.75	85%	85%	1.12
Botafogo +0.75	85%	85%	1.12
Botafogo +0.5	82%	79%	1.22
Botafogo +0.5	82%	79%	1.19
Botafogo +0.25	76%	77%	1.26
Botafogo +0.25	76%	77%	1.24
Grêmio +2	75%	81%	1.15
Grêmio +2	75%	81%	1.17
Grêmio +1.75	70%	75%	1.26
Grêmio +1.75	70%	75%	1.27
Botafogo 0	70%	73%	1.34
Botafogo 0	70%	73%	1.29
Grêmio +1.5	66%	68%	1.36
Grêmio +1.5	66%	68%	1.39
Botafogo -0.25	64%	63%	@ 1.55
Botafogo -0.25	64%	63%	1.50
Grêmio +1.25	60%	64%	1.43
Grêmio +1.25	60%	64%	1.49
Botafogo -0.5	59%	55%	@ 1.73
Botafogo -0.5	59%	55%	@ 1.73
Grêmio +1	54%	59%	1.57
Grêmio +1	54%	59%	1.62
Botafogo -0.75	53%	49%	@ 2.04
Botafogo -0.75	53%	49%	@ 1.96
Grêmio +0.75	47%	51%	1.82
Grêmio +0.75	47%	51%	1.91
Botafogo -1	46%	41%	@ 2.39
Botafogo -1	46%	41%	@ 2.33
Grêmio +0.5	41%	45%	2.06
Grêmio +0.5	41%	45%	2.13
Botafogo -1.25	40%	36%	@ 2.81
Botafogo -1.25	40%	36%	@ 2.65
Grêmio +0.25	36%	37%	2.44
Grêmio +0.25	36%	37%	2.61
Botafogo -1.5	34%	32%	@ 3.15
Botafogo -1.5	34%	32%	@ 3.01
Grêmio 0	30%	27%	3.29
Grêmio 0	30%	27%	@ 3.57
Botafogo -1.75	30%	25%	@ 3.70
Botafogo -2	25%	19%	@ 5.50
Botafogo -2	25%	19%	@ 5.00
Grêmio -0.25	24%	23%	3.81
Grêmio -0.25	24%	23%	4.12
Grêmio -0.5	18%	21%	4.32
Grêmio -0.5	18%	21%	4.50
Grêmio -0.75	15%	15%	6.25
Grêmio -0.75	15%	15%	6.25

📈 How the market moved

Botafogo 55%Draw 25%Grêmio 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio?

Our model's main pick is Botafogo with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 77%.

Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Grêmio?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline for Botafogo vs Grêmio.

What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Grêmio?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.67 for Botafogo and 0.96 for Grêmio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Botafogo and Grêmio play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.