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⚽ Premier League

Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chelsea vs Bournemouth in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Chelsea face Bournemouth in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Chelsea have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bournemouth have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Chelsea won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Chelsea win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.9-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chelsea vs Bournemouth with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

BTTS Yes @ 1.50

67%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.85 – 1.59 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	5.1%	4.1%	2.1%	0.9%
1	5.9%	9.4%	7.5%	4.0%	1.6%
2	5.5%	8.7%	6.9%	3.7%	1.5%
3	3.4%	5.4%	4.3%	2.3%	0.9%
4	1.6%	2.5%	2.0%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Chelsea winDrawBournemouth win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Chelsea vs Bournemouth comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is both teams to score at odds 1.50, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Chelsea win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (67%).

📊 Key numbers

Chelsea 42%Draw 28%Bournemouth 30%

42%28%30%

42%

Chelsea Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Chelsea and Bournemouth. Wins shown from Chelsea’s perspective: Chelsea 2 · 3 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-12-30	Chelsea	2 – 2	Bournemouth	D
2025-12-06	Bournemouth	0 – 0	Chelsea	D
2025-01-14	Chelsea	2 – 2	Bournemouth	D
2024-09-14	Bournemouth	0 – 1	Chelsea	W
2024-05-19	Chelsea	2 – 1	Bournemouth	W

📈 Recent form

Chelsea

Chelsea come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at home to Leeds. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Brentford.

LBrentford 3-0 ChelseaPremier League
DChelsea 2-2 Hull CityPremier League
WChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
LArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
WChelsea 4-3 BrightonPremier League

Bournemouth

Bournemouth come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Lincoln. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Liverpool.

LBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
WReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
DBournemouth 2-2 BrentfordPremier League
WBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup
DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Chelsea

J. GittensAnkle Injury
R. JamesMuscle Injury
Joao PedroKnee Injury
C. PalmerMuscle Injury
M. CaicedoCalf Injury
E. EmeghaMuscle Injury
M. PalestraThigh Injury

Bournemouth

J. AraujoThigh Injury
E. J. KroupiFoot Injury
A. ScottThigh Injury
A. AdliCalf Injury
D. BrooksInjury
J. KluivertMuscle Injury
V. MilosavljevicInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Chelsea at 42% to win and Bournemouth at 30%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Chelsea win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Chelsea Win	42%	57%	@ 1.65
Bournemouth Win	30%	20%	@ 4.75
Draw	28%	23%	@ 4.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chelsea or Draw at 1.18 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Chelsea or Draw	69%	80%	@ 1.18
Bournemouth or Draw	57%	43%	@ 2.20

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	67%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 3.5	55%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	45%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	33%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	14%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	67%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	33%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

Chelsea 57%Draw 23%Bournemouth 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?

Our model's main pick is both teams to score at odds 1.50, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 62%.

Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?

Our model makes a Chelsea win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.6 scoreline for Chelsea vs Bournemouth.

What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.85 for Chelsea and 1.59 for Bournemouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Chelsea and Bournemouth play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.