Sat 10 Oct14:00Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Watford vs Burnley Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Watford vs Burnley in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Watford face Burnley in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Watford have 1 win from their last 5, while Burnley have no wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Burnley won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 0.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Watford vs Burnley with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Burnley or Draw @ 1.36

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.90 – 1.43 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.7%	13.9%	9.9%	4.7%	1.7%
1	8.8%	12.5%	9.0%	4.3%	1.5%
2	3.9%	5.6%	4.0%	1.9%	0.7%
3	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Watford winDrawBurnley win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Watford vs Burnley comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.36, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean under 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Watford 13%Draw 32%Burnley 55%

13%32%55%

55%

Burnley Win

59%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Watford and Burnley. Wins shown from Watford’s perspective: Burnley 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-04-18	Watford	1 – 2	Burnley	L
2024-12-21	Burnley	2 – 1	Watford	L

📈 Recent form

Watford

Watford come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Preston. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Bristol City.

LBristol City 1-0 WatfordChampionship
LWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
WWatford 2-1 PrestonChampionship
LWest Brom 1-0 WatfordChampionship
LSwansea 2-0 WatfordChampionship

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 16 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Watford

T. AkomeahLacking Match Fitness
K. BaahKnock
M. BolaHamstring Injury
E. BoveKnee Injury
J. ZemuraMuscle Injury
J. NgakiaThigh Injury

Burnley

E. AgyeiMuscle Injury
J. BanelMuscle Injury
A. BarnesMuscle Injury
J. BeyerHamstring Injury
J. CullenKnee Injury
H. EkdalInjury
B. HumphreysMuscle Injury
H. MejbriHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Watford at 13% to win and Burnley at 55%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley Win	55%	42%	@ 2.20
Draw	32%	27%	@ 3.40
Watford Win	13%	31%	@ 3.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.36 (82% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley or Draw	82%	69%	@ 1.36
Watford or Draw	40%	58%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	68%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	59%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	41%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 1.5	32%	24%	@ 4.00
Over 3.5	21%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS Yes	46%	56%	@ 1.67

📈 How the market moved

Watford 32%Draw 26%Burnley 42%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Watford vs Burnley?

Our model's main pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.36, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Watford vs Burnley?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline for Watford vs Burnley.

What is the predicted score for Watford vs Burnley?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.90 for Watford and 1.43 for Burnley. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Watford and Burnley play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.