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⚽ Primeira Liga

Benfica vs Vitória SC Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Benfica vs Vitória SC in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Benfica face Vitória SC in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Benfica have 4 wins from their last 5, while Vitória SC have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 76%, projecting a 2.5-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Benfica vs Vitória SC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Benfica Win @ 1.25

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.55 – 0.85 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	2.8%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
1	8.5%	7.2%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
2	10.9%	9.2%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%
3	9.2%	7.8%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%
4	5.9%	5.0%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Benfica winDrawVitória SC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Benfica vs Vitória SC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is a Benfica win at odds 1.25, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 76%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Benfica 76%Draw 12%Vitória SC 12%

76%12%12%

76%

Benfica Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

Vitória SC

Vitória SC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Nacional. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Académico de Viseu.

DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LAcadémico de Viseu 2-1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LSC Braga 1-0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
WVitória SC 1-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Benfica at 76% to win and Vitória SC at 12%, with the draw at 12%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	76%	75%	@ 1.25
Draw	12%	16%	@ 5.75
Vitória SC Win	12%	9%	@ 11.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.05 (90% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	90%	91%	@ 1.05
Vitória SC or Draw	26%	25%	@ 4.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	66%	64%	@ 1.48
Under 3.5	56%	58%	@ 1.62
Over 3.5	44%	42%	@ 2.20
Under 2.5	34%	36%	@ 2.60
Under 1.5	15%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	47%	@ 2.00
BTTS No	47%	53%	@ 1.75

📈 How the market moved

Benfica 75%Draw 16%Vitória SC 9%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Benfica vs Vitória SC?

Our model's main pick is a Benfica win at odds 1.25, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Vitória SC?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 76%. It projects an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline for Benfica vs Vitória SC.

What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Vitória SC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.55 for Benfica and 0.85 for Vitória SC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Benfica and Vitória SC play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.