Wed 14 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Champions League

AS Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AS Roma vs Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Wednesday 14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AS Roma face Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League, kicking off Wednesday 14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Real Madrid win the most likely result at 51%, implying a 1.4-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for AS Roma vs Real Madrid with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
AS Roma win	25%
Draw	24%
Real Madrid win	51%
Over 2.5 goals	66%
Both teams to score	66%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.35 – 2.00 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	7.0%	7.0%	4.7%	2.3%
1	4.7%	9.5%	9.5%	6.3%	3.2%
2	3.2%	6.4%	6.4%	4.3%	2.1%
3	1.4%	2.9%	2.9%	1.9%	1.0%
4	0.5%	1.0%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

AS Roma winDrawReal Madrid win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of AS Roma vs Real Madrid. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Real Madrid win is the most likely result at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 66%. Both teams to score: yes at 66%.

📊 Key numbers

AS Roma 25%Draw 24%Real Madrid 51%

25%24%51%

51%

Real Madrid Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

AS Roma

AS Roma come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Torino.

DComo 0-0 AS RomaSerie A
DAS Roma 2-2 InterSerie A
WTorino 0-2 AS RomaSerie A
DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
WAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A

Real Madrid

Real Madrid come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Atlético Madrid.

WReal Madrid 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
LAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
WElche 2-3 Real MadridLa Liga
WReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
WReal Madrid 2-1 InterUEFA Champions League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AS Roma

M. BahKnee Injury
B. CristanteInjury
K. KoulierakisKnock
M. SvilarToe Injury

Real Madrid

R. AsencioBroken Leg
Eder MilitaoHamstring Injury
F. MendyHip Injury
RodrygoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AS Roma at 25% to win and Real Madrid at 51%, with the draw at 24%. The bookmaker market makes a Real Madrid win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Real Madrid Win	51%	@ 1.85
AS Roma Win	25%	@ 3.75
Draw	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Real Madrid or Draw at 1.25 (75% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Real Madrid or Draw	75%	@ 1.25
AS Roma or Draw	49%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.4-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	66%	@ 1.44
Under 3.5	53%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	47%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	@ 1.40
BTTS No	34%	@ 2.75

📈 How the market moved

AS Roma 26%Draw 24%Real Madrid 50%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Real Madrid win is the most likely result at 51%.

Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Our model makes a Real Madrid win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.4-2.0 scoreline for AS Roma vs Real Madrid.

What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for AS Roma and 2.00 for Real Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AS Roma and Real Madrid play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.