Thu 15 Oct16:45Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Union St. Gilloise face Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC. The bookmaker market makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 41%, implying a 1.6-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Union St. Gilloise win	41%
Draw	27%
Real Sociedad win	32%
Over 2.5 goals	57%
Both teams to score	59%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.55 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.5%	7.4%	5.0%	2.3%	0.8%
1	8.5%	11.5%	7.8%	3.5%	1.2%
2	6.6%	8.9%	6.0%	2.7%	0.9%
3	3.4%	4.6%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.3%	1.8%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Union St. Gilloise winDrawReal Sociedad win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Union St. Gilloise win is the most likely result at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 57%. Both teams to score: yes at 59%.

📊 Key numbers

Union St. Gilloise 41%Draw 27%Real Sociedad 32%

41%27%32%

41%

Union St. Gilloise Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Lommel United. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DUnion St. Gilloise 1-1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
WAntwerp 0-2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WPlzen 0-3 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League
WUnion St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
WCharleroi 2-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Deportivo La Coruña. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bournemouth.

WReal Sociedad 3-2 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
WValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
LReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
LReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
WElche 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Union St. Gilloise

A. Ait El HadjOff the roster
R. FloruczSuspended (red card)
I. HurteventNot in squad
K. Mac AllisterKnee Injury
I. PavlicOff the roster
K. RodriguezNot in squad
R. SykesShoulder Injury
A. ZorganeSuspended (red card)

Real Sociedad

J. AramburuMuscle Injury
A. OdriozolaKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Union St. Gilloise at 41% to win and Real Sociedad at 32%, with the draw at 27%. The bookmaker market makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise Win	41%	@ 2.25
Real Sociedad Win	32%	@ 2.88
Draw	27%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Union St. Gilloise or Draw at 1.40 (68% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise or Draw	68%	@ 1.40
Real Sociedad or Draw	59%	@ 1.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	57%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	43%	@ 2.20
Over 3.5	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	41%	@ 2.25

📈 How the market moved

Union St. Gilloise 40%Draw 26%Real Sociedad 33%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Union St. Gilloise win is the most likely result at 41%.

Who is the favourite for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?

Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad.

What is the predicted score for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.55 for Union St. Gilloise and 1.35 for Real Sociedad. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad play?

Kick-off is Thursday 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.