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⚽ UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Celtic Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Benfica vs Celtic in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Benfica face Celtic in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 75%, implying a 2.5-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Benfica vs Celtic with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Benfica win	75%
Draw	16%
Celtic win	9%
Over 2.5 goals	66%
Both teams to score	50%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.55 – 0.80 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
1	8.9%	7.2%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
2	11.4%	9.1%	3.7%	1.0%	0.2%
3	9.7%	7.8%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%
4	6.2%	4.9%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Benfica winDrawCeltic win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Benfica vs Celtic. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Benfica win is the most likely result at 75%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 66%. Both teams to score: yes at 50%.

📊 Key numbers

Benfica 75%Draw 16%Celtic 9%

75%16%9%

75%

Benfica Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

WBenfica 2-0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga

Celtic

Celtic come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Motherwell. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Rangers.

WMotherwell 0-2 CelticPremiership
LCeltic 0-1 RangersPremiership
LCeltic 1-3 FerencvárosUEFA Europa League
LRangers 3-0 CelticLeague Cup
WSt Johnstone 0-1 CelticPremiership

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Benfica

E. BarrenecheaInjury
J. KaminskiMuscle Injury

Celtic

A. JohnstonLeg Injury
S. MheukaOff the roster
C. OsmandAnkle Injury
Yang Hyun-JunHamstring Injury
J. van den BergOff the roster
C. Carter-VickersHealth problems

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Benfica at 75% to win and Celtic at 9%, with the draw at 16%. The bookmaker market makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	75%	@ 1.25
Draw	16%	@ 6.00
Celtic Win	9%	@ 10.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.06 (91% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	91%	@ 1.06
Celtic or Draw	25%	@ 3.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	66%	@ 1.44
Under 3.5	55%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	45%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS No	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Benfica 76%Draw 15%Celtic 9%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Benfica vs Celtic?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Benfica win is the most likely result at 75%.

Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Celtic?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 75%. It projects an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline for Benfica vs Celtic.

What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Celtic?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.55 for Benfica and 0.80 for Celtic. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Benfica and Celtic play?

Kick-off is Thursday 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.