Thu 15 Oct19:00Upcoming

Sturm Graz

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Bournemouth face Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Bournemouth win the most likely result at 79%, implying a 2.9-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Bournemouth win	79%
Draw	13%
Sturm Graz win	7%
Over 2.5 goals	70%
Both teams to score	50%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.85 – 0.80 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.6%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
1	7.4%	5.9%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
2	10.6%	8.4%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%
3	10.0%	8.0%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
4	7.1%	5.7%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Bournemouth winDrawSturm Graz win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Bournemouth win is the most likely result at 79%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 70%. Both teams to score: yes at 50%.

📊 Key numbers

Bournemouth 79%Draw 13%Sturm Graz 7%

79%13%

79%

Bournemouth Win

70%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Bournemouth

Bournemouth come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Lincoln. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at Chelsea.

LChelsea 5-1 BournemouthPremier League
LBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
WReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
DBournemouth 2-2 BrentfordPremier League
WBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup

Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Austria Vienna. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Red Bull Salzburg.

WAustria Vienna 0-2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
WSturm Graz 3-1 Floridsdorfer ACFriendlies Clubs
LRed Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
DSturm Graz 0-0 RennesUEFA Europa League
WSturm Graz 2-1 Lask LinzBundesliga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 21 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Bournemouth

M. AaronsOff the roster
A. AdliCalf Injury
J. AraujoThigh Injury
F. ForsterOff the roster
D. JebbisonOff the roster
J. KluivertMuscle Injury
E. J. KroupiFoot Injury
V. MilosavljevicInjury

Sturm Graz

N. GeyrhoferOff the roster
L. GrgicKnee Injury
S. JattaShoulder Injury
A. KayomboOff the roster
O. KiteishviliInjury
G. MamageishviliInjury
F. RozgaNot in squad
E. SogloMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bournemouth at 79% to win and Sturm Graz at 7%, with the draw at 13%. The bookmaker market makes a Bournemouth win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Bournemouth Win	79%	@ 1.18
Draw	13%	@ 7.00
Sturm Graz Win	7%	@ 13.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bournemouth or Draw at 1.04 (93% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Bournemouth or Draw	93%	@ 1.04
Sturm Graz or Draw	21%	@ 4.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.9-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	70%	@ 1.36
Over 3.5	50%	@ 1.91
Under 3.5	50%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS No	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Bournemouth 80%Draw 13%Sturm Graz 7%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Bournemouth win is the most likely result at 79%.

Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

Our model makes a Bournemouth win the most likely result at 79%. It projects an expected 2.9-0.8 scoreline for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz.

What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.85 for Bournemouth and 0.80 for Sturm Graz. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bournemouth and Sturm Graz play?

Kick-off is Thursday 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.