Tue 13 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Millwall vs Swansea Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Millwall vs Swansea in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Millwall face Swansea in the Championship, kicking off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Millwall have 1 win from their last 5, while Swansea have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Millwall won 3, Swansea won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Millwall win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.2-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Millwall vs Swansea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

70%Bookmaker odds imply 70%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.22 – 1.27 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	10.5%	6.7%	2.8%	0.9%
1	10.1%	12.8%	8.2%	3.5%	1.1%
2	6.2%	7.8%	5.0%	2.1%	0.7%
3	2.5%	3.2%	2.0%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.8%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Millwall winDrawSwansea win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Millwall vs Swansea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Millwall win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Millwall 40%Draw 27%Swansea 33%

40%27%33%

40%

Millwall Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Millwall and Swansea. Wins shown from Millwall’s perspective: Millwall 3 · Swansea 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-04-26	Millwall	1 – 0	Swansea	W
2024-10-26	Swansea	0 – 1	Millwall	W
2024-05-04	Swansea	0 – 1	Millwall	W
2023-09-30	Millwall	0 – 3	Swansea	L

📈 Recent form

Millwall

Millwall come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Preston. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Blackburn.

WPreston 0-1 MillwallChampionship
DMillwall 2-2 West HamChampionship
DMiddlesbrough 2-2 MillwallChampionship
LBlackburn 3-1 MillwallChampionship
LMillwall 0-1 NewcastleLeague Cup

Swansea

Swansea come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Burnley. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Southampton.

WSwansea 2-1 NorwichChampionship
WLincoln 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
WSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
LSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Millwall

J. CoburnMuscle Injury
C. De NorreMuscle Injury
M. IvanovicHamstring Injury
L. JensenMuscle Injury
M. LuongoKnee Injury

Swansea

C. BurgessAchilles Tendon Injury
S. EustaquioInjury
J. KeyHealth problems

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Millwall at 40% to win and Swansea at 33%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Millwall win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Millwall Win	40%	38%	@ 2.45
Swansea Win	33%	35%	@ 2.70
Draw	27%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Millwall or Draw at 1.44 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Millwall or Draw	66%	65%	@ 1.44
Swansea or Draw	60%	62%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	71%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	55%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	45%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	29%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	24%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	49%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Millwall 39%Draw 27%Swansea 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	39%
Dixon-Coles	Away	41%
GradientBoosting	Home	43%

Two of our three models agree on the match result; the third sees it differently.

Expected goals: 1.37 for the home side, 1.23 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Millwall vs Swansea?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Swansea?

Our model makes a Millwall win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.3 scoreline for Millwall vs Swansea.

What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Swansea?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.22 for Millwall and 1.27 for Swansea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Millwall and Swansea play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.