Tue 13 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Stoke City face Middlesbrough in the Championship, kicking off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Stoke City have 4 wins from their last 5, while Middlesbrough have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Stoke City won 2, Middlesbrough won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Middlesbrough win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.3-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

66%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.29 – 1.66 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	8.7%	7.2%	4.0%	1.7%
1	6.8%	11.2%	9.3%	5.1%	2.1%
2	4.4%	7.2%	6.0%	3.3%	1.4%
3	1.9%	3.1%	2.6%	1.4%	0.6%
4	0.6%	1.0%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Stoke City winDrawMiddlesbrough win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 66% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Middlesbrough win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Stoke City 34%Draw 28%Middlesbrough 38%

34%28%38%

38%

Middlesbrough Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Stoke City and Middlesbrough. Wins shown from Stoke City’s perspective: Stoke City 2 · Middlesbrough 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-02-25	Stoke City	1 – 3	Middlesbrough	L
2024-09-28	Middlesbrough	2 – 0	Stoke City	L
2024-03-02	Stoke City	2 – 0	Middlesbrough	W
2023-10-28	Middlesbrough	0 – 2	Stoke City	W

📈 Recent form

Stoke City

Stoke City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Charlton. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBolton 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
WStoke City 2-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
WWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
WStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Wolves. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Crystal Palace.

WMiddlesbrough 1-0 WolvesChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
DMiddlesbrough 2-2 MillwallChampionship
WMiddlesbrough 4-3 NorwichChampionship
LCrystal Palace 3-0 MiddlesbroughLeague Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Stoke City

A. CresswellKnee Injury
S. IngelssonMuscle Injury
M. TalovierovSuspended (red card)

Middlesbrough

A. JonesCalf Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Stoke City at 34% to win and Middlesbrough at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Middlesbrough win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Middlesbrough Win	38%	48%	@ 1.95
Stoke City Win	34%	26%	@ 3.60
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Middlesbrough or Draw at 1.28 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Middlesbrough or Draw	65%	74%	@ 1.28
Stoke City or Draw	61%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	66%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	57%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	43%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	34%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	21%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	41%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Stoke City 27%Draw 25%Middlesbrough 47%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	40%
Dixon-Coles	Away	51%
GradientBoosting	Home	37%

Two of our three models agree on the match result; the third sees it differently.

Expected goals: 1.26 for the home side, 1.34 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 66% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Our model makes a Middlesbrough win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.7 scoreline for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough.

What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.29 for Stoke City and 1.66 for Middlesbrough. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Stoke City and Middlesbrough play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.