Sat 17 Oct11:30Upcoming

⚽ Premier League

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Everton vs Chelsea in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Everton face Chelsea in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Everton have 1 win from their last 5, while Chelsea have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Everton won 1, Chelsea won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Everton win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Everton vs Chelsea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.50

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.44 – 1.43 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	8.1%	5.8%	2.8%	1.0%
1	8.2%	11.7%	8.3%	4.0%	1.4%
2	5.9%	8.4%	6.0%	2.9%	1.0%
3	2.8%	4.0%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.0%	1.5%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Everton winDrawChelsea win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Everton vs Chelsea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Everton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Everton 36%Draw 29%Chelsea 35%

36%29%35%

36%

Everton Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Everton and Chelsea. Wins shown from Everton’s perspective: Everton 1 · 1 drawn · Chelsea 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-21	Everton	3 – 0	Chelsea	W
2025-12-13	Chelsea	2 – 0	Everton	L
2025-04-26	Chelsea	1 – 0	Everton	L
2024-12-22	Everton	0 – 0	Chelsea	D
2024-04-15	Chelsea	6 – 0	Everton	L

📈 Recent form

Everton

Everton come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Ipswich.

DHull City 2-2 EvertonPremier League
WEverton 1-0 IpswichPremier League
WEverton 1-0 WolvesLeague Cup
DTottenham 0-0 EvertonPremier League
DEverton 2-2 Manchester UnitedPremier League

Chelsea

Chelsea come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Bournemouth. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Brentford.

WChelsea 5-1 BournemouthPremier League
LBrentford 3-0 ChelseaPremier League
DChelsea 2-2 Hull CityPremier League
WChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
LArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Everton at 36% to win and Chelsea at 35%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Everton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Everton Win	36%	30%	@ 3.10
Chelsea Win	35%	45%	@ 2.10
Draw	29%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Everton or Draw at 1.70 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Everton or Draw	64%	55%	@ 1.70
Chelsea or Draw	62%	70%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	68%	64%	@ 1.50
Over 2.5	55%	57%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	45%	43%	@ 2.20
Over 3.5	32%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	22%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	41%	41%	@ 2.25

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Everton vs Chelsea?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.

Who is the favourite for Everton vs Chelsea?

Our model makes an Everton win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline for Everton vs Chelsea.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Chelsea?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.44 for Everton and 1.43 for Chelsea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Everton and Chelsea play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.