Sat 17 Oct3-1Finished

⚽ Premiership

Aberdeen vs St Mirren Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aberdeen vs St Mirren in the Premiership. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Aberdeen 3-1 St Mirren

Aberdeen vs St Mirren finished 3-1. Aberdeen won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Aberdeen face St Mirren in the Premiership, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Aberdeen have 1 win from their last 5, while St Mirren have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Aberdeen won 1, St Mirren won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 0.8-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aberdeen vs St Mirren with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.40

93%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.81 – 0.69 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	22.3%	15.4%	5.3%	1.2%	0.2%
1	18.1%	12.5%	4.3%	1.0%	0.2%
2	7.3%	5.1%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
3	2.0%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-0

Aberdeen winDrawSt Mirren win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Aberdeen vs St Mirren comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 93% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (81%), both teams to score points no (73%).

📊 Key numbers

Aberdeen 35%Draw 37%St Mirren 28%

35%37%28%

37%

Draw

81%

Under 2.5 goals

73%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Aberdeen and St Mirren. Wins shown from Aberdeen’s perspective: Aberdeen 1 · St Mirren 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-17	Aberdeen	3 – 1	St Mirren	W
2026-05-12	Aberdeen	0 – 2	St Mirren	L
2026-04-04	St Mirren	2 – 0	Aberdeen	L

📈 Recent form

Aberdeen

Aberdeen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Motherwell. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to St Johnstone.

WAberdeen 3-1 St MirrenPremiership
LAberdeen 0-1 St JohnstonePremiership
WDunfermline 1-4 AberdeenFriendlies Clubs
DHibernian 1-1 AberdeenPremiership
WMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership

St Mirren

St Mirren come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 14. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Aberdeen.

LAberdeen 3-1 St MirrenPremiership
LHeart Of Midlothian 5-0 St MirrenPremiership
LSt Mirren 0-3 Dundee UtdPremiership
LRangers 1-0 St MirrenPremiership
LSt Mirren 1-2 CelticPremiership

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Aberdeen at 35% to win and St Mirren at 28%, with the draw at 37%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Draw	37%	25%	@ 3.75
Aberdeen Win	35%	51%	@ 1.83
St Mirren Win	28%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Aberdeen or Draw at 1.22 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Aberdeen or Draw	66%	76%	@ 1.22
St Mirren or Draw	60%	49%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.8-0.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 81% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	93%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	81%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	56%	24%	@ 4.00
Over 1.5	44%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	19%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	7%	32%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 73%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	73%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS Yes	27%	56%	@ 1.67

📈 How the market moved

Aberdeen 52%Draw 25%St Mirren 23%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 93% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 0.8-0.7 scoreline for Aberdeen vs St Mirren.

What is the predicted score for Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-0, based on expected goals of 0.81 for Aberdeen and 0.69 for St Mirren. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Aberdeen and St Mirren play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.