⚽ Major League Soccer
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Result: Minnesota United FC 3-2 St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City finished 3-2. Minnesota United FC won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Minnesota United FC face St. Louis City in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 20:30 UTC. Recent form: Minnesota United FC have no wins from their last 5, while St. Louis City have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Minnesota United FC won 3, St. Louis City won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.8-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is St. Louis City with a +1.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Minnesota United FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (71%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City. Wins shown from Minnesota United FC’s perspective: Minnesota United FC 3 · St. Louis City 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Minnesota United FC | 3 – 2 | St. Louis City | W |
| 2026-09-13 | St. Louis City | 4 – 2 | Minnesota United FC | L |
| 2024-10-20 | Minnesota United FC | 4 – 1 | St. Louis City | W |
| 2024-09-15 | St. Louis City | 1 – 3 | Minnesota United FC | W |
| 2023-09-24 | Minnesota United FC | 1 – 2 | St. Louis City | L |
📈 Recent form
Minnesota United FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 12. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to St. Louis City. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Seattle Sounders.
- WMinnesota United FC 3-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- DColorado Rapids 2-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DMinnesota United FC 2-2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- LSeattle Sounders 3-1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- LMinnesota United FC 2-3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 6-2 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Minnesota United FC.
- LMinnesota United FC 3-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- DSt. Louis City 0-0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- WSt. Louis City 6-2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. SmirKnee Injury
- P. StroudMuscle Injury
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- C. DurkinConcussion
- C. WallemInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Minnesota United FC at 40% to win and St. Louis City at 40%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC Win | 40% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| St. Louis City Win | 40% | 37% | @ 2.60 |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Minnesota United FC or Draw at 1.50 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC or Draw | 64% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| St. Louis City or Draw | 63% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 | 45% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 10% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 71% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 29% | 35% | @ 2.62 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Minnesota United FC or St. Louis City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC +1.75 | 87% | 86% | 1.11 |
| St. Louis City +1.75 | 86% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Minnesota United FC +1.5 | 84% | 81% | 1.17 |
| St. Louis City +1.5 | 83% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Minnesota United FC +1.25 | 79% | 79% | 1.19 |
| St. Louis City +1.25 | 78% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Minnesota United FC +1 | 74% | 77% | 1.24 |
| St. Louis City +1 | 73% | 74% | 1.27 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.75 | 69% | 69% | 1.38 |
| St. Louis City +0.75 | 68% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.5 | 64% | 64% | 1.50 |
| St. Louis City +0.5 | 63% | 61% | 1.57 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.25 | 57% | 59% | 1.63 |
| St. Louis City +0.25 | 56% | 55% | 1.72 |
| Minnesota United FC 0 | 50% | 51% | 1.90 |
| St. Louis City 0 | 50% | 49% | 1.95 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.25 | 44% | 45% | 2.15 |
| St. Louis City -0.25 | 43% | 41% | 2.31 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.5 | 37% | 39% | 2.42 |
| St. Louis City -0.5 | 36% | 36% | 2.62 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.75 | 32% | 33% | 2.85 |
| St. Louis City -0.75 | 31% | 31% | 3.08 |
| Minnesota United FC -1 | 27% | 26% | 3.71 |
| St. Louis City -1 | 26% | 23% | @ 4.12 |
| Minnesota United FC -1.25 | 22% | 25% | 3.84 |
| St. Louis City -1.25 | 21% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Minnesota United FC -1.5 | 17% | 22% | 4.25 |
| St. Louis City -1.5 | 16% | 19% | 5.00 |
| Minnesota United FC -1.75 | 14% | 17% | 5.75 |
| St. Louis City -1.75 | 13% | 14% | 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?
Our model's pick is St. Louis City with a +1.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?
Our model makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.8-2.1 scoreline for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City.
What is the predicted score for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.78 for Minnesota United FC and 2.14 for St. Louis City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City play?
Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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