⚽ Major League Soccer
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: New England Revolution 1-0 Chicago Fire
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire finished 1-0. New England Revolution won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
New England Revolution face Chicago Fire in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New England Revolution have 3 wins from their last 5, while Chicago Fire have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, New England Revolution won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New England Revolution win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.7-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is Chicago Fire with a +1 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a New England Revolution win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (62%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between New England Revolution and Chicago Fire. Wins shown from New England Revolution’s perspective: New England Revolution 3 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | New England Revolution | 1 – 0 | Chicago Fire | W |
| 2026-09-13 | Chicago Fire | 1 – 2 | New England Revolution | W |
| 2024-05-05 | Chicago Fire | 0 – 1 | New England Revolution | W |
| 2024-03-23 | New England Revolution | 1 – 1 | Chicago Fire | D |
| 2023-09-24 | Chicago Fire | 2 – 2 | New England Revolution | D |
📈 Recent form
New England Revolution come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Orlando City SC. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Seattle Sounders.
- WNew England Revolution 1-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- WFC Cincinnati 2-3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- LNew England Revolution 0-3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- LReal Salt Lake 3-0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- WNew England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Chicago Fire come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Vancouver Whitecaps. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at New England Revolution.
- LNew England Revolution 1-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LChicago Fire 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WChicago Fire 2-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- WChicago Fire 3-1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- WCharlotte 0-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- L. CampanaHamstring Injury
- M. FofanaLower-Body Injury
- J. HarrisonLower-Body Injury
- A. YusufMuscle Injury
- J. ElliottSuspended (red card)
- A. FrancoKnee Injury
- R. LodLower-Body Injury
- S. RogersLower-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices New England Revolution at 40% to win and Chicago Fire at 32%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a New England Revolution win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution Win | 40% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Chicago Fire Win | 32% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New England Revolution or Draw at 1.44 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution or Draw | 67% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Chicago Fire or Draw | 59% | 60% | @ 1.53 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 | 61% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 38% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when New England Revolution or Chicago Fire is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution +1.75 | 88% | 85% | 1.12 |
| New England Revolution +1.5 | 86% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Chicago Fire +1.75 | 84% | 83% | 1.15 |
| New England Revolution +1.25 | 81% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Chicago Fire +1.5 | 81% | 78% | 1.21 |
| New England Revolution +1 | 76% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Chicago Fire +1.25 | 76% | 76% | 1.26 |
| New England Revolution +0.75 | 72% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Chicago Fire +1 | 70% | 73% | 1.30 |
| New England Revolution +0.5 | 67% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Chicago Fire +0.75 | 65% | 66% | 1.45 |
| New England Revolution +0.25 | 60% | 60% | 1.59 |
| Chicago Fire +0.5 | 59% | 60% | 1.60 |
| New England Revolution 0 | 54% | 54% | 1.78 |
| Chicago Fire +0.25 | 53% | 54% | 1.78 |
| New England Revolution -0.25 | 47% | 46% | 2.08 |
| Chicago Fire 0 | 46% | 46% | 2.06 |
| New England Revolution -0.5 | 41% | 40% | 2.37 |
| Chicago Fire -0.25 | 40% | 40% | 2.39 |
| New England Revolution -0.75 | 35% | 34% | 2.78 |
| Chicago Fire -0.5 | 33% | 36% | 2.67 |
| New England Revolution -1 | 30% | 27% | @ 3.52 |
| Chicago Fire -0.75 | 28% | 30% | 3.22 |
| New England Revolution -1.25 | 24% | 24% | 3.90 |
| Chicago Fire -1 | 24% | 22% | @ 4.26 |
| New England Revolution -1.5 | 19% | 22% | 4.25 |
| Chicago Fire -1.25 | 19% | 21% | 4.50 |
| New England Revolution -1.75 | 16% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Chicago Fire -1.5 | 14% | 19% | 5.00 |
| Chicago Fire -1.75 | 12% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?
Our pick is Chicago Fire with a +1 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?
Our model makes a New England Revolution win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.5 scoreline for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire.
What is the predicted score for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.71 for New England Revolution and 1.46 for Chicago Fire. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do New England Revolution and Chicago Fire play?
Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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