⚽ Brazilian Série A
Fluminense vs Santos Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fluminense vs Santos in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Fluminense 1-2 Santos
Fluminense vs Santos finished 1-2. Santos won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Fluminense face Santos in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Fluminense have 3 wins from their last 5, while Santos have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Fluminense won 3, Santos won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fluminense win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.9-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fluminense vs Santos with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Fluminense vs Santos comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Fluminense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Fluminense and Santos. Wins shown from Fluminense’s perspective: Fluminense 3 · Santos 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Fluminense | 1 – 2 | Santos | L |
| 2026-04-19 | Santos | 2 – 3 | Fluminense | W |
| 2023-11-29 | Santos | 0 – 3 | Fluminense | W |
| 2023-07-29 | Fluminense | 1 – 0 | Santos | W |
📈 Recent form
Fluminense come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Coritiba. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santos.
- LFluminense 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
- LFlamengo 1-0 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- WFluminense 4-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- WCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- LPlatense 2-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
Santos come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Fluminense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Atlético Mineiro.
- WFluminense 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
- LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 SantosBrazilian Série A
- DSantos 2-2 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
- WSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
- WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- AlissonHip Injury
- G. CanoHamstring Injury
- Guilherme AranaSuspended (cards)
- John KennedyKnee Injury
- MartinelliNot in squad
- Matheus ReisKnee Injury
- Arthur MeloMuscle Injury
- G. EscobarNot in squad
- Gabriel BrazaoShoulder Injury
- Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
- Willian AraoSuspended (cards)
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Fluminense at 48% to win and Santos at 25%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Fluminense win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense Win | 48% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Santos Win | 25% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fluminense or Draw at 1.40 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense or Draw | 74% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Santos or Draw | 51% | 60% | @ 1.53 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 49% | @ 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 51% | @ 1.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 53% | @ 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fluminense or Santos is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense +1.5 | 90% | 85% | @ 1.12 |
| Fluminense +1.25 | 86% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Fluminense +1 | 82% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Santos +2 | 82% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Fluminense +0.75 | 78% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| Santos +1.75 | 78% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Santos +1.5 | 74% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Fluminense +0.5 | 74% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| Santos +1.25 | 68% | 77% | 1.23 |
| Fluminense +0.25 | 68% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Santos +1 | 63% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Fluminense 0 | 62% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Santos +0.75 | 57% | 66% | 1.43 |
| Fluminense -0.25 | 56% | 46% | @ 2.10 |
| Santos +0.5 | 51% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Fluminense -0.5 | 49% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
| Santos +0.25 | 44% | 54% | 1.79 |
| Fluminense -0.75 | 43% | 34% | @ 2.83 |
| Santos 0 | 38% | 45% | 2.12 |
| Fluminense -1 | 37% | 25% | @ 3.77 |
| Santos -0.25 | 32% | 38% | 2.52 |
| Fluminense -1.25 | 32% | 23% | @ 4.22 |
| Santos -0.5 | 26% | 33% | 2.89 |
| Fluminense -1.5 | 26% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Fluminense -1.75 | 22% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Santos -0.75 | 22% | 26% | 3.63 |
| Fluminense -2 | 18% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Santos -1 | 18% | 18% | 5.25 |
| Santos -1.25 | 14% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Santos -1.5 | 10% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fluminense vs Santos?
Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Fluminense vs Santos?
Our model makes a Fluminense win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline for Fluminense vs Santos.
What is the predicted score for Fluminense vs Santos?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.87 for Fluminense and 1.25 for Santos. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Fluminense and Santos play?
Kick-off is Sunday 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Kairat Almatyvs
PanathinaikosUEFA Europa Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct14:30
Trabzonsporvs
Heart Of MidlothianUEFA Europa Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct16:45
FK Crvena Zvezdavs
FC CopenhagenUEFA Europa Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct16:45
Getafevs
FC LuganoUEFA Europa Conference LeagueFC Lugano Asian Handicap +1.5@ 1.31Thu 22 Oct16:45
FC Iberia 1999vs
Mjallby AIFUEFA Europa Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct16:45
Inter Club d'Escaldesvs
Universitatea CraiovaUEFA Europa Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct16:45Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.