⚽ Serie A
Monza vs Cagliari Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monza vs Cagliari in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 19 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Result: Monza 4-0 Cagliari
Monza vs Cagliari finished 4-0. Monza won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.33, landed.
Monza face Cagliari in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Monday 19 October 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Monza have 1 win from their last 5, while Cagliari have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Monza won 2, Cagliari won 2, 1 drawn. The bookmaker market makes a Monza win the most likely result at 39%, implying a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monza vs Cagliari with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Monza vs Cagliari comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Cagliari win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Monza and Cagliari. Wins shown from Monza’s perspective: Monza 2 · 1 drawn · Cagliari 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Monza | 4 – 0 | Cagliari | W |
| 2025-03-30 | Cagliari | 3 – 0 | Monza | L |
| 2025-01-05 | Monza | 1 – 2 | Cagliari | L |
| 2024-03-16 | Monza | 1 – 0 | Cagliari | W |
| 2023-11-26 | Cagliari | 1 – 1 | Monza | D |
📈 Recent form
Monza come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Cagliari. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Lazio.
- WMonza 4-0 CagliariSerie A
- LLazio 3-1 MonzaSerie A
- DBrest 2-2 MonzaFriendlies Clubs
- WMonza 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
- LLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
Cagliari come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Udinese. Their only defeat in that run was 0-4 at Monza.
- LMonza 4-0 CagliariSerie A
- DCagliari 1-1 JuventusSerie A
- WUdinese 0-1 CagliariSerie A
- WAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
- WCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- O. ForsonInjury
- L. LucchesiSuspended (red card)
- Y. MayeMuscle Injury
- M. PessinaKnee Injury
- I. ToureKnee Injury
- E. ZeballosKnee Injury
- J. ZiolkowskiFoot Injury
- M. FeliciKnee Injury
- R. IdrissiKnee Injury
- Y. TrepyInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Monza at 24% to win and Cagliari at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Cagliari win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Win | 52% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
| Monza Win | 24% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cagliari or Draw at 1.53 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari or Draw | 76% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| Monza or Draw | 49% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Monza or Cagliari is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari +1.75 | 93% | 86% | @ 1.11 |
| Cagliari +1.5 | 91% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Cagliari +1.25 | 88% | 79% | @ 1.21 |
| Cagliari +1 | 84% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Cagliari +0.75 | 80% | 68% | @ 1.41 |
| Cagliari +0.5 | 76% | 61% | @ 1.56 |
| Monza +1.5 | 73% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Cagliari +0.25 | 70% | 54% | @ 1.79 |
| Monza +1.25 | 67% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Cagliari 0 | 64% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| Monza +1 | 61% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Cagliari -0.25 | 58% | 36% | @ 2.64 |
| Monza +0.75 | 55% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Cagliari -0.5 | 51% | 31% | @ 3.07 |
| Monza +0.5 | 49% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Cagliari -0.75 | 45% | 25% | @ 3.87 |
| Monza +0.25 | 42% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Cagliari -1 | 39% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Monza 0 | 36% | 56% | 1.72 |
| Cagliari -1.25 | 33% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Monza -0.25 | 30% | 46% | 2.12 |
| Cagliari -1.5 | 27% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Monza -0.5 | 24% | 39% | 2.44 |
| Monza -0.75 | 20% | 32% | 2.95 |
| Monza -1 | 16% | 24% | 4.04 |
| Monza -1.25 | 12% | 21% | 4.55 |
| Monza -1.5 | 9% | 20% | 4.80 |
| Monza -1.75 | 7% | 14% | 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Monza vs Cagliari?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Monza vs Cagliari?
Our model makes a Cagliari win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Monza vs Cagliari.
What is the predicted score for Monza vs Cagliari?
The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.32 for Monza and 1.16 for Cagliari. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Monza and Cagliari play?
Kick-off is Monday 19 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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